Trump's strategy to regain power in 2024 harder to replicate in 2026

President Donald Trump successfully harnessed voter anxiety over the economy, immigration and crime last year to retake the White House and lift plenty of other Republicans into office with him. But as the party tries to keep its grip on complete control in Washington, that strategy may be harder to replicate.

Republicans have lost a series of elections over the past month, some resoundingly. The latest setbacks came this week when a Democrat won the Miami mayor's race for the first time in three decades. Democrats also won a special election in a historically Republican district in Georgia.

There are also signs that Trump's influence over his party has its limits, and he failed Thursday to persuade Indiana state senators to approve a new congressional map that could have helped Republicans pick up two more seats.

 

Perhaps most concerning for Republicans, Trump is losing ground on the very issues that powered his comeback victory last year, potentially undermining his utility as a surrogate for the party's candidates in the midterm elections. Only 31 per cent of US adults now approve of how he's handling the economy, down from 40 per cent in March, according to a poll from The Associated Press-NORC Centre for Public Affairs Research. Trump has struggled to acknowledge the public's concern, telling Politico this week that he gave himself an A+++++ on the economy.

The picture wasn't much brighter on other issues that Trump has capitalized on, including crime and immigration. Despite Trump's aggressive law-and-order posture, which includes deploying the National Guard in Washington and other Democratic-led cities, Americans' approval of his handling of crime has slipped to 43 per cent from 53 per cent just a few months ago. On immigration, Trump's most consistent priority since launching his political career a decade ago, approval of his handling of the issue dropped from 49 per cent in March to 38 per cent now.

GOP worries as midterm elections loom  With Democrats just a few seats shy of reclaiming the House majority, Republicans are watching the developments with a growing sense of unease and frustration that the dynamics of Trump's first midterm when Democrats scored a net gain of 40 seats in 2018 are at risk of repeating.

If you're not concerned, then you're living in a cave, Sen. Jim Justice, R-W.Va., told reporters Thursday. If you're not watching the elections that are happening all the time, then you're living in a cave. We're not good at our messaging a lot of times as Republicans. The Democrats are professionals at it. We're not good at it.

With nearly a year until votes are cast, it's impossible to predict how the balance of power may shift in Washington. Historically, the party that occupies the presidency loses seats in Congress during the first midterm after a presidential election. But the scope of the Democratic wins in 2018 might be hard to replicate as redistricting and other voting patterns result in fewer genuinely competitive districts.

For his part, Trump remains publicly confident about the party's prospects.

People want us to win the midterms, and I think we have great spirit, he said at an event Wednesday. We should win the midterms.

His chief of staff, Susie Wiles, recently told a podcast that Trump will campaign aggressively next year and the party will effectively put him on the ballot. But the challenge of that strategy was on display this week when a trip to Pennsylvania intended to focus on combating inflation was instead overshadowed by grievances about immigrants from filthy countries.

Other challenges continue to stack up. Pressure from rogue Republicans forced Trump to ultimately go along with a vote calling for the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files. And legislation passed this week includes several measures that push back against Trump's Defence Department.

The affordability angle  Many Republicans campaigning in some of the most competitive congressional districts in the US aren't distancing themselves from Trump. John Braun, a state senator in Washington state who is challenging Democrat Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, said he would be fine if Trump decided to visit the district. He also noted with approval that Vice President JD Vance plans to increase his travel plans.

While he was optimistic about the party's opportunities, Braun was clear about the challenges facing Republicans heading into 2026. He said affordability is the top issue he hears from voters.

We have a lot of work to do and a lot of it's going to depend at the national level in particular on what Republicans do to affect the affordability issues, Braun said. People are interested in many things, a wide range of issues. But top of mind right now is how do I support myself, my family in the current environment? We're going to have to do the right things over the next 11 months.

In Washington on Thursday, there was a distinct sense among Republicans in Congress that the right things weren't happening. Frustration grew after the Senate rejected an extension of health care subsidies, essentially guaranteeing millions of Americans will face a steep rise in costs in January, adding to voters' existing economic concerns.

Sen Thom Tillis, R-N.C., who has opted against reelection, said this moment is even more perilous for Republicans than the period before the 2018 midterms when the party unsuccessfully sought to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, playing into Democratic attacks on health care. At least during that debate, he argued, voters weren't losing something as they would in January.

Us failing to put something else in place did not create this cliff that people are going to encounter, Tillis said. That's the fundamental difference in an election year.

Some Republicans on Capitol Hill expressed concern that the party has a problem communicating with voters. And if there's no last-minute fix to prevent the health care hike, some said there may be no effective message.

If people suddenly pay thousands of dollars more for health care, I don't know what kind of messaging is going to matter in that circumstance, said Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Calif. It is what it is. And so we can try to (say) oh it's their fault or our fault.' Unfortunately, that's what a lot of the energy around here seems to be devoted to.