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Four development challenges for BJP and Modi following Gujarat win

With BJP's fifth successive win in Gujarat, it faces various challenges such as lower immunisation rates, low enrollment of girls in school, and low conviction rates for crimes against SC-ST

IndiaSpend 

Supporters of BJP  during the Parivartan Rally in Bengaluru on Sunday
Photo: PTI

As the forms its fifth successive government in Gujarat–India’s westernmost state, with a population of 60.4 million–it faces the challenges of lower rates than the Indian average, low enrollment of girls in school, and low conviction rates for against and tribes when compared to the India average.

Gujarat, the country’s sixth richest of 30 states in 2015-16, had a per capita income of Rs 122,502, 57 per cent higher than India’s Rs 77,803 in 2015-16. Over the last 19 years of the BJP government, Gujarat’s per capita income increased ninefold, the overall crime rate fell from 267.3 per 100,000 people to 233.2, and the infant mortality rate (IMR-deaths per 1,000 live births) fell by more than 50 per cent.

Still, rates were nearly 12 percentage points lower than India as of 2015-16, the sex ratio at birth at 907 girls per 1,000 boys in 2015-16 remains lower than the natural level of 943-980, stunting (low height for age) and wasting (low weight for height) rates were higher than other rich states such as Kerala, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Haryana, and learning levels have declined by 19 percentage points for upper primary school students in rural schools over the last six years, shows an IndiaSpend analysis of government data and the Annual Status of Education Reports.

IndiaSpend lays out each of these challenges in detail, based on an analysis of government data from 1998 (or the earliest available) to the latest available.

Challenge 1: Low coverage, high wasting prevalence

In 2015-16, 50.4 per cent of children below two years in were fully immunised, lower than some of India’s poorer BIMARU (Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh) states, IndiaSpend reported in April 2017.

Not only is Gujarat’s coverage 12 percentage points lower than India’s, it has also grown at a slower rate, according to data from the Family Health Survey (NFHS). While India’s coverage improved by 18.5 percentage points in ten years from 2005-06 to 2015-16, Gujarat’s improved by only five percentage points.

of children at a young age is one way to reduce infant mortality, as India loses 0.5 million children below the age of two years every year due to diseases preventable by vaccination.

Source: National Family Health Survey-4.

In Gujarat, the prevalence of wasting among children below the age of five years increased by nearly eight percentage points from 18.7 per cent in 2005-06 to 26.4 per cent in 2015-16, compared to a 1.2 percentage point increase in the Indian average rate of wasting (21 per cent in 2015-16). In October 2017, 18 children, most of whom were underweight, died over three days at Ahmedabad’s main civil hospital, IndiaSpend reported in November 2017.

Gujarat’s health indicators are worse than other rich states such as Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Punjab, Haryana, and Maharashtra, IndiaSpend reported in December 2017.

Source: National Family Health Survey-4

Himachal Pradesh, a state whose per capita income was almost equal to Gujarat’s in 2015-16, not only had wasting prevalence close to 13 percentage points lower than in 2015-16, but also managed to reduce it over ten years, unlike Gujarat, where wasting increased.

Wasting results from inadequate nutrition. In 2015-16, 5.2 per cent of children below two years received an adequate diet in Gujarat, compared to 9.6 per cent in India, according to NFHS data.

This was despite an increase in health spending in from 3.4 per cent of aggregate expenditure in 2000-01, to 5.4 per cent in 2016-17. India’s expenditure on health was 4.9 per cent of aggregate expenditure in 2016-17.

Higher investment and better infrastructure do not always lead to an improvement in health outcomes, as IndiaSpend reported in December 2017.

Challenge 2: Low enrollment in secondary school, poor education quality

As many as 95 per cent of all children in enroll in primary school (grades I-V), but only 74 per cent of secondary school-age (grades IX-X) children enroll in school, six percentage points lower than the Indian average of 80 per cent, according to data from District Information System For Education (DISE).

At the higher secondary level (grades XI-XII), 43.4 per cent of higher secondary school-age children were enrolled in school in Gujarat, 13 percentage points lower than in India, and the sixth lowest among 30 states.

Source: District Information System For Education

Enrollment in higher education (age 18-23) in has also been lower than the India average.

Source: All India Survey On Higher Education

Over six years to 2016, learning levels declined at the upper primary level in rural schools, according to the Annual Status of Education Report 2016, a citizen-led initiative measuring learning, managed by Pratham, an education nonprofit. In 2010, 54.3 per cent of grade VIII students in government and private rural schools could perform division, which reduced to 35 per cent in 2016. While 79 per cent of grade VIII students could read at least a grade II level text in 2010, it reduced to 76.6 per cent in 2016.

One of the reasons could be lower spending. The government spent 14 per cent of its aggregate expenditure in 2016-17 on education, fifth lowest among Indian states.

The India average was 15.6 per cent.

Challenge Three: Female empowerment

Gujarat’s sex ratio at birth saw no improvement in ten years–it was 906 girls per 1,000 boys in 2005-06 and 907 in 2015-16. The new government faces the challenge of improving the state’s sex ratio, as a natural sex ratio at birth is considered to be between 943-980 girls per 1,000 boys, according to calculations from this 2011 World Health Organisation report.

The literacy rate among women in has remained higher than India over 10 years. However, India has shown a faster growth in its female literacy rate.

Source: National Family Health Survey-4

At the upper primary level, the dropout rate for girls in in 2014-15 was 8.5 per cent, the third highest in the country, according to DISE data. The India average was 4.6 per cent.

At the secondary (grades IX-X) level, as few as 67 per cent of secondary school-age girls enrolled in 2015-16, 14 percentage points lower than India’s 81 per cent, according to DISE data. The drop-out rate, too, was higher at 23 per cent in 2014-15, six percentage points higher than India’s 17 per cent. The same trend continues at the higher secondary level, with a gross enrollment ratio of 41.4 per cent, compared to India’s 56.4 per cent.

Challenge Four: Low conviction rates for against scheduled castes, tribes

is one of five states (the others being Goa, Rajasthan, Mizoram and Nagaland) where the crime rate for under the Indian Penal Code (IPC) fell in 2016 compared to 1998. In 1998, Gujarat’s crime rate was 267.3 per 100,000 people, which reduced to 233.2 cases in 2016–the tenth highest of all Indian states.

In 2016, had a lower crime rate against women and children when compared to the India average, but it had a higher crime rate against

Source: National Crime Record Bureau

Conviction rates of against in were nearly six times lower than the average between 2004 and 2014, IndiaSpend reported in July 2016. The average conviction rate over this period was 5 per cent, implying that out of every 100 suspects, as many as 95 were acquitted. The average conviction rate for India was 29 per cent.

In 2016, the conviction rate of against in was 4.6 per cent, while for India it was 25.7 per cent, according to the latest NCRB data.

In terms of against scheduled tribes, Gujarat’s crime rate was 3.2 per 100,000 population in 2016, lower than India’s 6.3. However, the conviction rate for such was lower in at 0.9 per cent compared to India’s 20.8 per cent.


(Nair is an intern with IndiaSpend.)

We welcome feedback. Please write to respond@indiaspend.org. We reserve the right to edit responses for language and grammar.

First Published: Tue, December 19 2017. 09:06 IST
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