Modi is still the Sangh's best bet: Why RSS has backed demonetisation

One of the most notable differences between the Narendra Modi regime and the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led government, both headed by the Bharatiya Janata Party, is the nature of the relationship between the government and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh at one level and between the political executive and party functionaries at the other level. During the Vajpayee era, party officials felt left out, yet, could do little but indulge in gossip with one another and media. However, the RSS worked at cross purposes and periodically acted as the real opposition as its affiliates ranging from Vishwa Hindu Parishad, Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh, Bharatiya Kisan Sangh and most importantly Swadeshi Jagran Manch agitated against government policies. Even the RSS sarsanghchalak, KS Sudarshan made offensive statements against the prime minister and his government.

The reason for the absence of animosity between government and RSS this time is partially due to past time-sharing between Modi and Mohan Bhagwat. Born within days of each other in September 1950, the two, share a relationship that dates back to the early 1970s when they were young pracharaks. Having being groomed in the RSS culture both respect both relationships and offices the two hold, yet, are also aware of limitations, most importantly being aware that friendship cannot be leveraged. 

The RSS stance on demonetisation is in sync with the government because of this understanding. Despite the fact that demonetisation hurt the traditional core middle-class and trader support-base of the RSS, it did not criticise the step. This stemmed from the fact that the announcement did not catch the RSS top brass by surprise. While praising the move and arguing that it would yield significant dividends in the fight against black money and corruption, RSS affiliates like SJM, BMS and BKS were muted in their comments and only pressed for the government to manage cash flow better, minimise job losses and initiate policies targeted to assist the poor. Conversations over the past fifty days with people in the know of developments within RSS indicates that the leadership was in the loop with Modi once the decision to scrap high-value currency notes had been taken. Though the exact timing and details of the plan remained secret, the broad thrust of the dramatic decision was indicated and this has been a recurring feature – the RSS has displayed an uncanny sense of what is being planned next. For instance, the RSS top brass was aware that after scrapping Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes, Modi would gun next for Benami property – much before his declarations at Goa on return from Japan.

Frequent alteration of decisions, modifications of timeline and limits for withdrawals and deposits is a significant departure from Modi’s past style. Modi himself has showcased his ‘flexibility’ as proof of intention to minimise inconvenience caused to people, especially the poor and middle classes. Clearly, the feedback mechanism of the vast RSS network has ensured that Modi did not lose with the reaction on ground to his steps. Initially, it appeared that Modi had cajoled the RSS into believing that the losses among the middle class and traders would be offset by breaking into new ground among the underprivileged sections. In fact, in days immediately after demonetisation, there was talk that Bhagwat had indicated to aides that he would want the Sangh to focus more on rural areas and among lower economic classes who had been outside the ambit of the RSS till date. But when feedback made it evident that losses were not being balanced by inroads into new social and economic groups Modi attempted to minimise damage.

It needs to be recalled that Modi’s address to his party lawmakers on December 16, last day of the wasted Winter Session of Parliament, emphasized that  demonetisation was not targeted against traders and small businesses that hitherto underreported their income when filing IT returns. He clearly initiated the process of assuaging alienated traders by stating that directions had been issued to officers not to conduct any “post-mortem” of those in small businesses and trades whose annual income jumped dramatically post-November 8. He added that his government would provide opportunities to enable them to “join the mainstream.”

From the beginning, whenever justifying his decision, Modi wore the cloak of high morality and contended that his decision was not motivated by personal considerations and that the decision was driven by nationalistic considerations. The RSS always has a great preference for such tactic and this has been the primary reason for backing Modi’s audacious step. Despite unequivocal support till date, the RSS has the advantage of affiliates like SJM, BMS and BKS who have the capacity to up the ante against the government anytime and stop being soft of demonetisation. The RSS has greater stakes in this regime than ever before and there is clarity in the top brass that Modi remains the best bet. It is true that there are divergent voices too within the RSS but at the moment, the section led by Bhagwat is dominant. Consequently, there appears little threat to the synergy between the two.

(The writer is a Delhi-based writer and journalist. He authored Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times and Sikhs: The Untold Agony of 1984. Twitter handle: @NilanjanUdwin)