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King Connectivity
Robert Cyran /  October 28, 2009, 0:20 IST

Media/content: Connectivity is king. As painful as that admission would be for empire-building media moguls, it also looks to be true. Content may be sexy - it’s the driving force behind deals like Comcast’s possible purchase of NBC Universal, for example. But a simple look at market values or the willingness of wireless customers to pay for data services, suggests connectivity is worth more than content.

Consumers have always paid more for connecting with one another than entertainment. Take radio. Broadcasting music has been a big business since the 1930s. Radio technology’s use in wireless handsets is far more recent. Yet US wireless operator sales are now about $150 billion a year - or ten times as large as radio broadcasting revenues, according to Andrew Odlyzko, a professor at the University of Minnesota and former Bell Labs researcher.

On a similar note, the combined market capitalisation of the five largest US content producers - Walt Disney, Time Warner, News Corp, Viacom and CBS – comes to $148bn. That’s $1 billion less than the market value of AT&T, which though the biggest, is by no means the only telecommunications company in America.

The most profitable service by far for wireless operators is texting. Operators get about $1,000 to transmit one megabit of data. The amount they receive for transmitting the same amount of streaming video is about 1 cent per megabit. A collection of messages such as “pls pik up 2 per cent milk, thx” is more valuable to users than a Hollywood blockbuster on a miniaturised screen.

Moreover, movies demand far higher production values than misspelled texts about milk, so costs are higher.

Now technology threatens both Hollywood and operators alike – for starters, digital movies are easily pirated, and free internet calling is supplanting the paid variety. Yet the historical pattern seems to be the same. Facebook pages aren’t nearly as slick as the movies and television on entertainment site Hulu.com. Yet Facebook’s value appears higher – it has now turned cash flow positive and growing quickly. Hulu is burning cash and trying to figure out whether it can charge for its content.

Of course, content is king when it comes to attracting attention and dinner party invitations. Being a media mogul is simply more interesting than running a plumbing business for social connections. As long as this is the case, expect the heads of connectivity firms to continue making overpriced acquisitions justified by the claim that “content is king”.

Over the hump
Fiona Maharg-Bravo /  October 28, 2009, 0:18 IST

BP: The worst may be over for oil and gas majors, if BP is anything to go by. The UK oil major’s net profits almost halved in the third quarter, relative to the same period in 2008. But they were up on the preceeding three months and the drop was much less than investors feared. BP, and newish chief executive Tony Hayward, can take as much credit for the performance as the recovering oil price.

BP: The worst may be over for oil and gas majors, if BP is anything to go by. The UK oil major’s net profits almost halved in the third quarter, relative to the same period in 2008. But they were up on the preceeding three months and the drop was much less than investors feared. BP, and newish chief executive Tony Hayward, can take as much credit for the performance as the recovering oil price.

All the big oil groups have been bearing down on costs this year, but BP’s efforts have been especially successful. The group expects expenses to shrink by around $4 billion in 2009, a 13 per cent fall on last year, and compared with a previous target of $3 billion. Some of the efficiency gains are really just the benefit of a weak dollar. A lower effective tax rate in the third quarter also helped. But at least 60 per cent of the targetted savings are genuinely operational.

Better still, BP’s production volumes are rising. The group pumped 7 per cent more barrels of oil or oil equivalent in the quarter thanks to the ramp-up of its flagship deepwater Thunderhorse platform in the Gulf of Mexico, and the absence of hurricanes. Refining volumes are back to where they were before the explosion in the Texas City refinery in 2005.

BP can now balance its books with oil at less than $60 a barrel, well below the current $79. After all, BP actually reduced its net debt by $800m in a quarter when the oil price averaged about $68 a barrel, but where gas prices and refining margins were especially weak. This should put to rest any lingering doubts over the sustainability of the dividend this year and probably next.

The shares have outperformed rival Royal Dutch Shell over the past year, extending their lead with a 4 per cent gain in morning trading on October 27. From here, it will take further pleasant surprises on cost savings for BP to stay ahead. Shell has some big projects yet to come on stream, but there are questions over BP’s growth in the medium term. Hayward has his work cut out if this isn’t to be as good as it gets for BP.

For further commentary see www.breakingviews.com
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