Signs of falling Covid-19 numbers may be deceptive, warn experts

7-day rolling average of daily cases down from 95,000 in mid-Sept to below 85,000 now: Report

The seven-day rolling average of daily Covid-19 cases in India has declined from the peak of around 95,000 in mid-September to below 85,000 towards the end of the month, according to data maintained by COVID19India, an independent data repository.
 

This gives a sense that the epidemic is coming under “control” in India.
 

The same period shows another positive trend: The rate at which new infections spread has also declined below 1, implying that 100 infected people now infect less than 100 new uninfected ones. This is so if one goes by the parameter R — the dynamic reproductive rate —