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FY19 growth at 7.1%, Budget unlikely to be populist: India Ratings

With global crude prices firming up, it expects retail, wholesale inflation to come in at 4.6% and 4.4%, respectively in 2018-19

Press Trust of India  |  New Delhi 

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Ratings and Research on Thursday projected the country's economic growth to improve to 7.1 per cent next financial year from 6.5 per cent this year, buoyed by robust consumer demand and low commodity prices.

In its outlook for 2018-19, the agency said there will be a gradual pick up in growth momentum owing to structural reforms like and Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) in place.

"While the implementation of is likely to benefit the over the medium to long-term, the same cannot be said about the impact of demonetisation," Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra), a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, said.

expects (GDP) to grow 7.1 per cent year-on-year in 2018-19, it said.

The projection is a tad lower than 7.4 per cent growth estimated by (ADB) and (IMF) for next financial year.

said but for and goods and services tax (GST) implementation, growth would not have decelerated to 7.1 per cent in 2016-17 and 6.5 per cent in 2017-18.

With the global firming up, expects and wholesale to come in at 4.6 per cent and 4.4 per cent, respectively in 2018-19, indicating an end to the current rate cut cycle.

There is still some fuzziness with respect to the intensity and the level of its future trajectory, it said, adding that the RBI "will remain in a pause mode for an extended period of time".

The agency said it expects in 2017-18 to come in at 3.5 per cent, overshooting the budgeted estimate of 3.2 per cent.

"Despite 2018-19 being a pre-election year, Ind-Ra does not expect the to be a populist However, it expects some expenditure reallocation with an increased focus on the rural and agriculture sectors," it said.

The agency expects in 2018-19 to be at 3.2 per cent, higher than 3 per cent stated in the medium-term fiscal policy statement.

A mix of global and domestic factors will keep the Indian rupee range bound at average Rs 66.06/$ in 2018-19, it said.

First Published: Fri, January 19 2018. 02:13 IST