Surat Lok Sabha seat may see a major upset

Elections for 24 Lok Sabha (LS) constituencies in Surat came to an end on Tuesday in the first phase of polling, along with 25 other seats in Gujarat.

Low voter turnout was seen in most constituencies in Gujarat, and Surat fared no better with just 8,96,085 turning up from a total of 23,77,117 voters, that is, around 37.70 per cent.

Both Congress and BJP are claiming that they will win the Surat seat. The scales are tilted slightly in favour of Congress candidate Chandravadan Pithawalla. Reasons behind the same seem obvious. More than average votes were cast in areas where Congress is strong as well as in those areas which are Pithawalla's stronghold.

These areas include assembly segments of Olpad, Surat East, Jalalpore and Navsari. In Olpad, a total of 1,43,869 votes, that is , 39.78 per cent voters cast their votes.

As far as Surat East, Jalalpore and Navsari assembly segments are concerned, total number of votes case were recorded at 62,781 (43.93 percent), 93,124 (53.13 percent) and 94,309 (51.12 percent), respectively.

These are areas which witnessed steady flow of voters right from the morning compared with other places, where majority of the votes were cast in the last two hours.

Vote division in these areas is expected to be in the ratio of 70:30 in favour of Congress, which will mean that these areas will give Pithawalla a healthy lead over Kashiram Rana.

At the same time, Kashiram Rana is expected to gain a sizeable lead over Chandravadan Pithawalla in Surat North, Surat West and Choryasi assembly segments.

Number of votes cast in Surat North were recorded at 71,326 (34.73 per cent), while the same in Surat West and Choryasi was recorded at 1,08,655 (38.63 per cent) and 3,22,021 (31.38 per cent).

Kashiram Rana is expected to get a major percentage of the votes cast in these three assembly segments and even out the advantage that Pithawalla might have over him in the other four assembly segments.

However, Muslim votes could very well tilt the scale in Pithawalla's favour. Muslims voted with much enthusiasm and around 40-45 per cent populace cast their votes. Pithawalla is expected to get majority of these 1.50 lakh Muslim votes, which could make be the difference.

Another thing that could work in Pithawalla's favour is that a large number of people of Khatri, Gola, Ghanchi and Kanbi communities, who are committed BJP voters, abstained from voting.

Anti-incumbency feeling among voters is another factor that will hurt Kashiram Rana. A large number of BJP corporators, leaders and workers, remained largely inactive during polling. This is exactly opposite to Congress as almost all leaders and workers worked for Chandravadan Pithawalla.

BJP leaders are claiming that Kashiram Rana would win by a margin of over 3 lakh votes, while Congress is claiming that Pithawalla would win by a margin of 51,000 votes.

The victory margin won't certainly exceed a few thousand votes and the possibility that of a major upset cannot be ruled out either.