In a mere six weeks, a political near-unknown has leveraged her sibling’s compelling legacy to find a way to the peak of Thailand’s democratic structure and, in the process, is set to become the first female prime minister of a nation that has seen more than its fair share of turmoil in the past decade.
Yingluck Shinawatra, 44, youngest sister of ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, and her Puea Thai party swept the polls and now have control of more than half of the 500 seats in the country’s parliament.
Having since begun talks with smaller parties to form a coalition that could control as many as 300 seats, Puea Thai has dealt a decisive blow to incumbent Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s Democrat Party, left with 160 seats.
The Democrats have conceded defeat and the Oxford-educated Vejjajiva has announced his resignation from the party leadership, making way for Yingluck to become the sixth premier in five years.
The country’s powerful army, which removed Thaksin in a military coup in 2006, has so far remained in the barracks and has reportedly claimed it will not challenge the result of the polls.
The Royal Thai Army has been a primary participants in the 18 coups Thailand has witnessed since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932. About 90 people died last year, when armed troops and pro-Thaksin ‘Red shirts’ clashed during street protests.
“With more than 250 seats, Puea Thai has a strong mandate and the military will be in a difficult position to challenge or contend the party’s position. The military must know its bargaining power now,” Pavin Chachavalpongpun of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies told Business Standard from Bangkok.
Thaksin’s legacy
Puea Thai’s victory has underscored the importance of Thaksin Shinawatra, currently exiled in Dubai, in Thailand’s political landscape. The billionaire politician, widely believed to control the party, had his businesswoman sister introduced as the prime ministerial candidate in May, even as he himself seeks to return despite an existing jail sentence in Thailand.
In the male-dominated political circles, Yingluck will have to prove her worth, though it is increasingly clear that her brother’s political capital is intact. “If you look at her (Yingluck) as an individual, she is capable and has no political baggage. She may use a softer touch for dealing with critical issues,” Chachavalpongpun said. Few expect the Opposition to make things easy for her, especially if she pushes for an amnesty to ensure Thaksin’s return. The Army may react if they find the situation too threatening and could combine with the conservative ‘Yellow shirts’, or the anti-Thaksin People’s Alliance for Democracy.
Clearly, much will depend on how she wields power.
Regional integration
The return of political stability in Thailand will also be good for the region. Its role in the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) has been overshadowed in recent years due to internal turmoil. As the bloc moves towards the creation of the Asean Community by 2015, Thai participation will be crucial.
“A stable Thailand will undeniable benefit the region. But we will have to see to what extent the government will be interested in engaging internationally. Thailand’s chairmanship of Asean (in 2008-2009) was a failure. The government will need some stability domestically to be able to focus on creating good foreign policy,” said Chachavalpongpun, who is also lead researcher for political and strategic affairs at the institute’s Asean studies centre.
The Asean Community initiative aims to create security, economic and socio-cultural communities over the next four years and convert the bloc “from a loose association of states to a more integrated and rules-based organisation”, in accordance with a charter that came into force in 2008.
Economic impact
With the prospect of post-poll violence receding due to the nature of the mandate, economists see a decrease in near-term risks for the Thai economy, a sentiment reflected in the markets as the country’s benchmark index ended almost five per cent higher.
However, with the new government slated to push rural spending by raising minimum wages, rural infrastructure spending and the minimum price for rice, rising inflation may be a worry for the central bank.
Thailand is the world’s largest rice exporter.
“We know these programmes will be implemented by the new government, but the level of the push and the time of implementation are unclear,” said Rahul Bajoria, a regional economist at Barclays Capital.
The Bank of Thailand has raised key rates five times in the past seven months, with Barclays expecting another increase in the third quarter. The economy is likely to expand between four and five per cent this year, according to government estimates.
