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Citi expects growth to slow below 2% in 2023 amid challenges from Covid

Citigroup on Wednesday forecast global growth to slow to below 2% next year, echoing similar projections by major financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and J.P. Morgan

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Citigroup | JP Morgan | Goldman Sachs

Reuters 



A Citigroup office is seen at Canary Wharf in London. Photo: Reuters

on Wednesday forecast to slow to below 2% next year, echoing similar projections by major financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and J.P. Morgan.

Strategists at the brokerage cited continued challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war - which skyrocketed inflation to decades-high levels and triggered aggressive policy tightening - as reasons behind the outlook.

"We see global performance as likely (being) plagued by 'rolling' country-level recessions through the year ahead," said Citi strategists, led by Nathan Sheets.

While the Wall-Street investment bank expects the U.S. economy to grow 1.9% this year, it is seen more than halving to 0.7% in 2023.

It expects year-on-year U.S. inflation at 4.8% next year, with the U.S. Federal Reserve's terminal rate seen between 5.25% and 5.5%.

Among other geographies, Citi sees the UK and euro area falling into recession by the end of this year, as both economies face the heat of energy constraints on supply and demand front, along with tighter monetary and fiscal policies.

For 2023, Citi projects UK and euro area to contract 1.5% and 0.4%, respectively.

In China, the brokerage expects the government to soften its zero-COVID policy, which is seen driving a 5.6% growth in gross domestic product next year.

Emerging markets, meanwhile, are seen growing 3.7%, with India's 5.7% growth - slower than this year's 6.7% prediction - seen leading among major economies.

(Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)


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First Published: Wed, November 30 2022. 15:49 IST

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