From yield curve to labour signs: Tips for spotting a recession in the US

The downward trend suggests "there's been a lingering caution on behalf of businesses"

As the US nears a record-long expansion in July, the conversation is increasingly turning to when it will all end.

Recessions are inherently hard to spot. The National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, a panel whose determinations of when expansions begin and end are accepted as official, generally waits about a year to make a call. By the time a sustained downturn is evident in data like payrolls or gross domestic product, a contraction may have already begun.

Recession fears ebbed Friday as solid retail sales suggested consumer spending remains healthy. But investors still expect a Federal Reserve interest-rate