With oil demand not rising, the future may be worse than what Opec thought

Forecasts of 2019 oil demand growth may slip below 1 million barrels a day in the coming months

Saudi Arabia and Russia are on a collision course.

On Friday the International Energy Agency will publish its first forecast of oil market balances in 2020. The headline figures will probably show stockpiles rising next year if the OPEC+ producer group doesn’t extend output cuts into a fourth year.

But their pain may not end there. Growing signs that demand growth is turning out to be much weaker than expected may require producers to make even deeper cuts. If so, that could spell the end of the partnership between Saudi Arabia and Russia on oil policy.

The production restraint