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Coffee output in India, the world's sixth largest producer, is likely to see a sharp decline for the first time in nine years. Prolonged drought and uneven showers have affected the flowering and cherry formation in both Arabica and Robusta varieties.
The harvest of coffee for the coming crop year, beginning October 2013, may drop below the 300,000-tonne mark. Though the Coffee Board of India is yet to release official numbers for the new crop, private growers have pegged it at 265,000 tonnes at the lower end and 275,000 tonnes at the upper end, a decline of five to nine per cent.
In 2007-08, India harvested 262,000 tonnes, the lowest in the last decade. During the 2012-13 crop year, bean picking is estimated at 290,000 tonnes by the growers' body, Karnataka Planters' Association (KPA). The Coffee Board had estimated it at 314,000 tonnes. It is, however, yet to announce the final harvested numbers.
For the past three years, coffee production is hovering around 300,000 tonnes annually and for the first time since 2007-08, production is set to decline sharply.
"The drought has played havoc this year. The blossom showers were uneven in most of the growing regions in Chikmagalur, Kodagu and Hassan districts," said Nishant R Gurjer, chairman of KPA. "In addition, Chikmagalur witnessed temperatures of 38-40 degree Celsius, unusual for March and April and, seen for the first time in 20 years."
KPA estimates Arabica production to be 75,000 tonnes and Robusta at 190,000 tonnes to 200,000 tonnes for 2013-14. In 2012-13, planters had harvested 80,000 tonnes of Arabica and 215,000 tonnes of Robusta.
Chikmagalur contributes 35 per cent of the Arabica output and 25-30 per cent of Robusta.
Gurjer said the pattern of blossom showers was uniform in all the growing regions. Revathi rains (popularly known by the name of rain in Karnataka) in the month of April did not occur, leading to delayed flowering and cherry formation. "Normally, between March 15 and end of April, the growing regions in the state get 8-10 inches of rain. However, this year, it was almost nil. This kind of scenario was last seen in 1983," Gurjer said.
However, exporters feel it is too early to make any firm predictions on the exact crop size for the year. The accurate picture will only emerge when the post-monsoon predictions are made, said Ramesh Rajah, president of the Coffee Exporters Association of India.
"This year, the Robusta production could be lower compared to last year and the Arabica output will be same as last year at about 85,000 tonnes. We expect total production to be lower by 10 per cent and total output could decline below the 300,000-tonne mark after three years," he said.
Gurjer added yields could be lower this year due to white stem borer attacks on plants following a spell of dry weather after blossoming last year. The Robusta variety is more sensitive to droughts and dry spells, which lead to white stem borer attack on plants.
