Here's what brokerages expect from TVS Motor Q3 results today

TVS Motor is likely to post over 20 per cent growth in both revenue and profit for the December quarter of FY21 (Q3FY21), on Thursday, on the back of volume growth, analysts believe. The company had reported revenue and profit of Rs 4,125.5 crore and Rs 196.3 crore, respectively, in the year-ago quarter.

According to the monthly sales data, TVS Motor sold 9.89 lakh units in Q3FY21, up 20 per cent YoY from 8.21 lakh units it sold in the year-ago period. Sequentially, the company's volume grew 14 per cent from 8.67 lakh in Q2FY21. In the quarter under review, the company sold 9.51 lakh 2-wheelers (up 23% YoY) and 37,638 3-wheelers (down 22% YoY).

At the bourses, the stock of TVS Motor ticked up only 1.13 per cent during Q3FY21 as compared to the benchmark Nifty50 index's 24 per cent surge in the same period, ACE Equity data show.

Here's what top brokerages expect from TVS Motor's Q3FY21 results:

Nomura

We expect TVS Motor's revenues to grow 29 per cent YoY to Rs 5,331.3 crore as overall volumes are up 20 per cent YoY. The bottom-line is seen growing 27 per cent YoY to Rs 233.3 crore. Ebitda margin is set to decline sequentially to 8.8 per cent on higher commodity and BS-6 costs, which are partly offset by cost control. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and ammortisation (Ebitda) may come in at Rs 467 crore, up 29 per cent YoY from Rs 363.3 crore reported in the year-ago period

Kotak Institutional Equities

TVS Motor's volumes increased by 20 per cent YoY in Q3FY21, led by 28-31 per cent YoY increase in moped and motorcycle segments and 11 per cent YoY increase in scooter segment, and offset by 22 per cent YoY decline in 3W segment. We expect the company's revenues to increase by 28 per cent YoY in Q3FY21 to Rs 5,251.2 crore, largely led by increase in volumes and 6 per cent increase in average selling price (ASPs) YoY due to BS-VI transition. Net profit is seen coming at Rs 245.3 crore.

We expect the company's Ebitda to increase by 37 per cent YoY in Q3FY21 to Rs 497 crore, led by operating leverage benefits offset by decline in gross profit per vehicle and rise in input costs. Margins are seen at 9.5 per cent for the quarter under review.

Motilal Oswal

Analysts at Motilal Oswal believe TVS Motor's net sales may increase 28.2 per cent YoY to Rs 5,288 crore while profit after tax (PAT) may rise 28.8 per cent YoY to Rs 232.8 crore. According to the brokerage, TVS Motor's strong volume growth would be offset by higher raw material cost and no export incentives, while realisation may see 6.4 per cent YoY growth. On the margin front, Ebitda margins may tick up 20 basis points (bps) to 9 per cent, and Ebitda is seen rising 9 per cent YoY to Rs 475.2 crore.

Nirmal Bang

We expect TVS Motor's revenue to rise 28.9 per cent YoY to Rs 5,316.9 crore, and PAT to come in at Rs 242.9 crore. Price increase on BS-VI products, partially offset by deteriorating mix (lower 3Ws and higher Moped share) is expected to lead to around 7 per cent YoY growth in average selling price (ASP). Tight cost control measures and higher operating leverage benefit, partially offset by an adverse product mix and limited BS-VI pass-through will aid 30bps YoY margin expansion to 9.1 per cent in the quarter under review. Ebitda may come in at Rs 483.8 crore, up 33.2 per cent YoY.