Industry bodies divided over output estimate

Sugar industry that is yet to arrive at a final output estimate for the year to September has divergent views on next year's output estimate as well.

ISMA expects year to September 2009 sugar output to fall to as low to 22 million tonnes.

Indian Sugar Manufacturers Association Director General S L Jain said, "Many traditional cane growing farmers are expected to shift to other more remunerative crops this year and the resultant lower acreage would lead to a substantial fall in production."

International Sugar Organisation Executive Director Peter Baron, however, was of the view that India's production in 2008-09 is not likely to fall as estimated by industry bodies such as ISMA.

"ISO believes the country's sugar output next year would be about 30 million tonnes in raw value," Baron said. In fine sugar terms, it works out to be about 27.3 million tonnes.

Indian sugar industry calculates sugar output on the white refined basis.

"From what we have learnt from Indian industry players, the shift from sugarcane to the crops is not as easy as it seems," Baron said.

Baron said prices in the country are fairly stable and not many farmers will be willing to shift to the crops. Jain on Wednesday pegged India's sugar output for the year to September at 27 million tonnes while Baron estimated that the country's production will be 27.2 million tonnes.