Kharif outlook stays bullish

MONSOON WATCH

Even as the monsoon slips into a weak phase and is likely to remain so for at least 4 to 5 days more, the crop sowing operations continue to be in full swing throughout the country. The cumulative seasonal monsoon rainfall in the entire country, which remained deficient till the third week of June, turned surplus later, providing adequate soil moisture to facilitate crop seeding and germination.

However, flash floods caused by sustained heavy downpours in several pockets in the beginning of July are said to have damaged freshly planted crops, necessitating re-sowing at some places. However, the overall kharif crop outlook remains bullish on good showing by the monsoon so far.

The backlog in the planting of paddy and some other crops, created due to low rainfall in June, has, by and large, been cleared. Barring pulses, which have till now been sown on about 16 per cent less area than last year, the sowing of all other major crops is ahead of their last year's corresponding positions.

According to the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting NCMRWF), the axis of the monsoon has retreated to the foot hills of the Himalayas, pushing it into the weak phase which may last for the next 4 to 5 days. As a result, the north-west, central India and the interior peninsula are likely to experience subdued rainfall during this period. But the sub-Himalayan West Bengal and the north-eastern states would get widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy showers. Kerala and coastal Karnataka are also likely to receive good rainfall in the next few days.

Of the country's total 36 meteorological subdivisions, 29 have received normal or above normal rainfall between June 1 and July 11. The remaining 7 sub-divisions falling in the deficient rainfall category are located chiefly in the east and north-east. Much of the deficiency in this region is also believed to have been made up by the copious rainfall all over this region in the past week or so. Besides, they are also predicted to get more showers in the next week. In any case, even the below-normal rainfall in this region is usually more than adequate for crop sowing and plant growth.

Indeed, thanks to the above 18 per cent normal monsoon rainfall till July 11, the country's overall hydrological position is extremely good. Total water stored in 78 major reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission is 33 per cent above the last year's corresponding level and a whopping 86 per cent higher than the long-period average for this time.

These dams together had about 60.21 billion cubic metres (BCM) of water on July 12, against 45.34 BCM last year and a normal of 32.3 BCM for this date.

As many as 69 of these 78 dams are already filled up to over 80 per cent of their normal levels. The politically sensitive Mettur dam in the Cauvery river basin is likely to be filled to the brim in the next day or so, facilitating timely and adequate release of water for the Samba season crops in the Cauvery delta.

Only 3 dams are reporting below 30 per cent of the normal storage. These are Shetrung in Gujarat, Vanivilas sagar in Karnataka and Rihand dam in Uttar Pradesh. The only reservoir reporting nil live storage is Sriramsagar dam in Andhra Pradesh.

While there is no problem in surface irrigation, tubewell irrigation is facing constraints in some states due to inadequate and irregular power supply. Reports from Maharashtra indicate irregular and odd-hour power supply to the rural areas. Karnataka farmers are also getting far less power than they need for the sowing operations.

The sowing of most coarse cereal crops, including maize and bajra, is lagging behind the last year's corresponding positions. The total area planted for these crops till July 13 was estimated by the agriculture ministry at 80.3 lakh hectares, against 86.2 lakh hectares sown till this date last year. However, the sowing of these crops is still continuing.

Cotton, which had set a new production record last year, seems heading for another bumper harvest this year. The area planted under this crop till July 13 was over 69 lakh hectares, about 11 lakh hectares more than the last year's corresponding level. Significantly, the insect-protected transgenic Bt cotton hybrids have been sown on over 30 per cent of this acreage.

Oilseed crops have also been sown on about 9 per cent more acreage so far this year than last year. While groundnut has gained about 8 per cent additional area, soyabean has been planted on 14 per cent more acreage.