Monsoon lull not to hit sowing

Weakening of the southwest monsoon in the past week has raised some concerns over delay in kharif crop sowing, but scientists say it is too early to panic. Sowing will be affected only if the weak spell continues for more than 15 days, they said on Monday.

"Even another week of delay is not a cause for concern," said L S Rathore, a scientist with the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting.

However, in areas where rains have been scanty so far, it would be prudent to defer sowing till the next spell of rains, he said.

In an advisory issued today, the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting said since the southwest monsoon is unlikely to revive in the next seven days, farmers in areas that have received deficient-to-scanty rains so far should defer sowing till the next spell of rains.

Though the monsoon arrived in India a week ahead of schedule, it entered a weak phase on June 8 and is unlikely to revive before June 17.

The rainfall during this period is likely to be below normal except in the northeastern states, according to the India Meteorological Department.

Rathore said the weak phase should not deter farmers from continuing with normal sowing operations in areas where it has already rained since there is sufficient moisture content in the soil.

"Soil moisture content due to the early showers is good and conditions are very conducive for sowing of coarse cereals in Gujarat and rice in southern regions," he said.

Rathore said in south coastal regions, moisture content in soil is high and farmers should prepare nursery beds for sowing rice and start transplanting with the onset of fresh showers.

However, in areas where rains have been weak so far, farmers should wait for further showers before sowing rice, which is a water-intensive crop, he said.

R Balasubramaniam, a scientist with IMD's Pune-based agricultural meteorology division, also advised a wait-and-watch approach for sowing in areas that have not received adequate rains so far.

He said though there is no cause for concern at the moment, farmers should wait for some time before commencing sowing operations, particularly in oilseed growing areas of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.

If rains are delayed by another 15-20 days, farmers may have to opt for short-duration and early maturing varieties of groundnut and soybean, he said.

Many farmers in Junagarh, Gujarat, have already sown groundnut, taking advantage of the early showers.

"Farmers are not panicky yet and may go for short duration crops only if rains are delayed beyond June 20," said Monik Vora, one of the largest groundnut traders in Gujarat.

He said farmers are not keen on sowing a short duration groundnut crop, which takes about 60 days to mature, as its yield is lower than the regular 90-day crop.

In parts of Maharashtra, however, sowing has been put on hold.

"Last year, farmers in Maharashtra faced huge losses due to irregular showers. Learning from last year's experience, they have not sown yet," a farmer from the state's Jalgaon district said.

He said delayed sowing is not likely to have any impact on crop output in the region.

"The crop output may be affected only if there are no rains till June-end," he said, adding a lot would depend on how the monsoon progresses from now on.

Rathore also said it is crucial to monitor the progress of the monsoon in parts of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. "If the rains are delayed by more than 10-15 days, it could have an adverse impact on sowing," he said.

The monsoon rains are critical for summer crops like rice, oilseeds, coarse cereals, sugar cane and cotton as over 60 per cent of the country's agriculture is rainfed and is dependent on the timeliness, quantum and regularity of rainfall.

The IMD has predicted June-September monsoon to be below normal at 93 per cent of the long-period average.

The IMD had said last week rainfall during June 1 to June 7 was 40.2 mm, 68 per cent above normal of 23.9 mm for the week.

Of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions in the country, rainfall was deficient in 10 and normal-to-excess in the remaining 26.