If Nifty50 falls below 16,500 mark, it will be a short-term bearish signal

The 200-DMA is generally a good indicator of a long-term trend

Higher interest rates and tighter monetary policy, combined with slower growth, are a bear-market recipe. These are synchronised global trends at the moment. On the risk-off logic, many investors are pulling out of emerging-market equities.

In purely technical terms, the Nifty’s trend is indeterminate and hard to read.

The accompanying chart has been normalised to illustrate Nifty movements since January 1, 2021 - set as the base. The index gained 30 per cent by mid-October 2021 (peaking at 18,600-plus levels). It trended down until June 2022, when it hit a low of 15,183 - a correction of about 16 per