The overall output of agricultural commodities in the ensuing rabi (winter) season is likely to surpass the total output in the ongoing kharif (autumn) season for the first time since the last drought in 2002-03.
When the monsoon is normal, rabi crops, led largely by wheat, rapeseed and mustardseed, contribute 40 per cent, while kharif crops, led by rice and soybean, share 60 per cent of agriculture’s 17 per cent contribution to the gross domestic product of around Rs 33.4 lakh crore.
The development assumes significance as acreage loss in the kharif season due to 26 per cent deficient rainfall on a long-term basis is expected to be covered in the rabi season with wheat being an early-sown crop. Since the carry-forward moisture content of the current monsoon season will stretch beyond September (due to late monsoon), wheat and rapeseed/mustardseed sowing will be sown on more area than last year.
According to an estimate by the agriculture ministry, a 5 per cent fall in the kharif output will mean a loss of around Rs 28,000 crore, essentially in rice, groundnut and cane, and maybe in pulses. A 10 per cent decline in the output of kharif rice will mean a loss of eight-nine million tonnes, whose conservative value is Rs 10,000 crore.
However, the finance minister subsequently announced that the kharif sowing could be 20 per cent lower than last year. A major decline was seen in the total area under rice (22 per cent) versus a fall of 2-10 per cent for sugarcane, pulses and oilseeds.
But higher rabi output might not adequately compensate the kharif losses, said Madan Sabanavis, chief economist & head, Knowledge Management
The partial revival in monsoon reduced the deficiency from 29 per cent in the week ended August 12 to 26 per cent during the subsequent week.
As on August 12, 171 districts had been declared drought-hit. With predictions that the El Nino conditions will pick up following a mild July, the prognosis for August rains is not encouraging. Even the meteorological department has revised its monsoon forecast down to 87 per cent of normal from 93 per cent earlier.
Given the delayed progress of the monsoon, it is likely that the entire country will be declared drought-hit — defined as 10 per cent shortfall for the country as a whole — with 20 per cent of the country facing a deficiency of 25 per cent or more, according to a study by Standard Chartered.
During the last drought, net acreage for kharif crops was down only by 7.6 per cent, but production fell by almost 22 per cent due to a significant drop in yields. Also, the agricultural value-added within GDP was down by almost 6 per cent. Applying this result to a 20 per cent drop in the net sown area yields ominous results. However, there were several factors which might mitigate the negative impact, the study said.
The 2002-03 drought year was the only time in the past 42 years when agri output during rabi season was higher than the kharif season. Thus, rabi production during the current season might have a significant bearing on overall agricultural production volume this year as well, it added.
