Tech view: Overhead supply in the near term

The markets opened firm to end significantly lower than the intraday peaks. The hourly charts indicate a continued decline after the first hour of gains. The traded volumes were marginally higher as the participation levels rose, albeit insignificantly.

The market breadth was positive as the combined exchange figures were 2497:1373. The capitalisation of breadth continued to be marginally negative as the commensurate figures were Rs 7247 crore:Rs 8367 crore.

The indices have closed at the lower half of the intraday range as the bulls failed to hold on to their new-found initiative. That the market internals were positive indicates retail buying across select small / midcap stocks.

The 4625 / 4845 range specified for Wednesday was overcome on the upside, though the gains were unsustainable.

The coming session is likely to witness a range of 4630 on declines and 4865 on advances. The traded volumes below the 4800 levels will determine the strength of the bears as this level is the bearish pivot for the coming session.

The market internals indicate a slightly higher turnover as the participation levels rose marginally. The number of trades decreased and the average ticket size was higher, indicating improved buying over the previous session. The capitalisation of the market was higher inline with an uptick session.

The outlook for the markets on Thursday is that of caution as the short term charts point towards overhead supply in the near term. Overseas cues, if negative, may add to the selling pressure.