Turmoil in emerging markets has Opec on alert; Saudis likely to be cautious

The oil cartel has memories of the impact of 1997 Asian crisis when it boosted output, ignoring a crisis brewing in emerging markets that led to benchmark oil prices falling below $10 a barrel

For more than two decades, OPEC has tried to avoid repeating a mistake that cost it dearly. In November 1997, at a meeting in Jakarta, Saudi Arabia convinced fellow oil producers to boost output, ignoring a crisis brewing in emerging markets.

The output increase came at the worst possible time. What in November 1997 looked like a hiccup, by mid-1998 was a full emerging-markets crisis spreading to Russia and Brazil. Global oil demand growth slowed, in part because of an unusually warm winter in the northern hemisphere. Benchmark oil prices fell below $10 a barrel, the lowest since the 1973-74