Unfavourable climate may dent jeera output by 12%

Lower acreage also cited as reason for falling production levels

Jeera (Cumin) output in India may fall by 12 per cent to 387,000 tonnes during 2016-17 due to lower acreage and adverse weather conditions. The country had produced 438,000 tonne of the spice in 2015-16.

Gujarat, the highest jeera-producing state in the country, has reported a fall in area under the crop by six per cent to 278,700 hectares in 2016-17, from 295,200 hectares in 2015-16, according to state agriculture department data. As per the second advance estimate of the Gujarat government, the state is estimating 212,000 tonnes of jeera production for the year 2016-17. Last year it was around 238,000 tonnes.

"This year, during the sowing and growing period, especially in December and January so far, the weather has not been favourable for jeera crop in Gujarat and Rajasthan, which are the top producing states. Moreover, acreages also decreased as farmers have shifted to other crops such as pulses and mustard. These led to fall in jeera production to 370,000-380,000 tonnes," said Ritesh Kumar Sahi, research analyst for agri commodities at Angel Broking.

A Gujarat agriculture department official also said above normal temperature impacted the yield, which fell to 761 kg per hectare from 833 kg last year.

Some, however, believe that jeera production may not be more than 225,000 tonne in the next season.

"We are not expecting more than 220,000-225,000 tonnes of jeera production for 2016-17 as climatic conditions have affected the crop. With this, sowing has also declined. In this situation, higher production is not expected," said Yogesh Mehta, managing director of SpiceExim.

According to a market expert, good export demand and lower stock positions have seen jeera prices rise and the bullish trend may continue in the coming days, as the stock on hand is very low.

During the past three months, jeera prices have constantly increased, averaging Rs 17,808 per quintal in November 2016 and about Rs 18,293 in January 2017. According to traders, prices may go up to Rs 20,000 a quintal in the next one month.