US ups soybean export target by 25 mn bushels

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its 2006-07 soybean export forecast by 25 million bushels to 1,120 million bushels.

The 2006 US soybean harvest rose to a record 3,188 million bushels, primarily on the strength of a record sown area (75.5 million acres). The country's year-end stocks are forecast up 10 million bushels to 575 million bushels.

The 2006-07 production forecast for Argentine soybeans has been raised from 42 million tonne to 42.5 million tonne owing to abundant rainfall. Consequently, the 2006-07 export forecast has been raised from 7.2 million tonne to 7.35 million tonne, just above 2005-06 exports of 7.26 million tonne.

Through December 2006, US commercial export shipments of soybean oil were double the volume of a year earlier. China has re-emerged as a strong market for the commodity, accounting for more than one-quarter of US export sales this season.

Most US exports of soybean oil, though, will continue to go to more traditional buyers in Latin America, where commercial shipments are also expected to grow.

With sowing of the 2006/07 rapeseed crop recently completed in northern India, farmers are now expected to harvest 6.7 million hectares, down from 7.3 million hectares last year.

The area reduction was prompted by strong prices for alternative crops (particularly wheat) and a large carryover of government-held rapeseed stocks.

As a result, the forecast of Indian rapeseed production is lowered to 6.2 million tonne from 6.5 million tonne previously and 6.8 million tonne in 2005-06.

This year's smaller domestic harvest will further enhance import needs for vegetable oil in India. Imports of soybean oil and palm oil for 2006-07 are each forecast 50,000 tonne higher, to 1.85 million tonne and 3.8 million tonne, respectively.