Wheat, chana prices to fall on better harvest

After a year marked by shortage and high prices, consumers are likely to get some relief this year with forecasts of better harvest of both wheat and chana.

At the first Agriwatch Rabi Commodities conference, experts of the industry put the current year's rabi wheat production at 728 lakh tonne, up 4.7 per cent from last season's 695 lakh tonne.

However, this is lower than the 740 lakh tonne output forecasted by Union Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar.

This season, the country's wheat acreage was higher at 275.5 lakh hectare (till January 5), up from an area of 266.5 lakh hectare in 2005-06 and 264.9 lakh hectare in 2004-05. 
 

COOLING OFF
	Crop Production		Acreage
	2005-06	2006-07(F)	2005-06	2006-07
Wheat	695.00	728.00	266.50	275.50
Chana	50.50	55.00	72.68	78.28
Mustard	78.87	57.00	72.63	66.24
Production in lakh tonne, acreage in lakh hectare F-forecast Acreage as on January 4-5

This is on the back of the Rs 100 hike in minimum support price to Rs 750 a quintal from Rs 650 a quintal. Last year, the country had to import 55 lakh tonne wheat because the procurement by the Food Corporation of India slumped to 93 lakh tonne from the previous year's 148 lakh tonne.

As per the industry estimates, chana production was up 8.9 per cent at 55 lakh tonne compared with last year's 50.5 lakh tonne. This is primarily owing to higher acreage under the crop at 78.28 lakh hectare (on January 4), against 72.68 lakh hectare in 2005-06 and 69.47 lakh hectare in 2004-05.

However, after a bumper crop in mustard for the past two years "� 78.87 lakh tonne in 2005-06 and 76 lakh tonne in 2004-05, the industry is apprehensive that the mustard production may decline to 57 lakh tonne this time.

Lured by higher prices, farmers diverted large areas under mustard in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh to the cultivation of chana and wheat.

On January 4, the area under rapeseed mustard was 66.24 lakh hectare, down from 72.63 lakh hectare in 2005-06 and 68.1 lakh hectare in 2004-06.