World Soybean output to lag demand for first time in four years

World output of soybeans in the year to August 2008 may lag demand for the first time in four years because of smaller crops in the US and China, according to industry consultant OilWorld.

Production may decline to 223.55 million tonnes from 237.66 million tonnes this year, Thomas Mielke, director at OilWorld, said in interview at an industry conference in Goa, India.

Demand for the oilseed, crushed for animal feedmeal and oil for food and fuel, may rise 5.4 per cent to 239.15 million tonnes in the year to August 2008, he said. A smaller crop in South America will add pressure to shrinking world supplies that have driven up the oilseed 80 percent in the past year in Chicago.

"Global deficit in the major oilseeds in unprecedented," he said. "If anything goes wrong with the South America crop, supplies will be very tight."

Rising demand and inadequate supplies may cut stockpiles of the oilseed to a three-year low of 55.4 million tonnes in the year to August 2008, from 71 million tonnes this year, he said.

OilWorld's production forecast includes estimates for the US crop at 71.27 million tonnes, down from a July 13 forecast of 72.4 million tonnes.

Argentina may gather 48 million tonnes, up from 47 million tonnes estimated previously, while the Brazilian crop may be little changed at 62.3 million tonnes.