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A low growth, low inflation phase

GVA decline can be due to late impact of demonetisation and destocking activities undertaken pre-GST

The low growth in agriculture in Q1 FY18 was not entirely unexpected as the average growth in the sector in the first quarter of the last five fiscals  was a meagre 2.5%
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The low growth in agriculture in Q1 FY18 was not entirely unexpected as the average growth in the sector in the first quarter of the last five fiscals was a meagre 2.5%

Soumya Kanti Ghosh
The Q1 GDP data released on August 31 was disappointing. Beneath the data internals however, there are some stark realities which are important to understand for better policy decision making.

To begin with, nominal gross value added (GVA) increased by only 7.9 per cent in Q1. Thus, we don’t agree with the Central Statistics Office narrative that increase in Wholesale Price Index prices/higher GVA deflator (GVA deflator declined from 5.4 per cent to 2.2 per cent) was one of the reasons for the slowdown. The decline of GVA could be due to factors like the lingering impact of demonetisation and
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