A push for Bush

The United States has an electoral system that allows the people to pass judgement on the government once every two years in a way that no other system does. President George W Bush, who has been in power for six years, had on the past two occasions succeeded in getting their approval. This time, however, he has failed spectacularly. His Republican Party was in a majority in the House of Representatives. Now it no longer is, because the Democratic Party has won more seats. The election to the seats in the Senate may or may not lead to the same result, but the swing is away from the Republicans. Equally significant is the fact that the Democrats have won many governors' seats as well, most importantly in Ohio, which had determined the outcome of the last two presidential elections. The Republicans have enjoyed total dominance in Washington for the last six years, and have been in control of Congress for even longer. Now the political field is more level, and the initiative in some ways has passed to the Democrats.

This election was essentially a referendum on the war in Iraq. What started off as a popular war has turned out to be something of an albatross around Mr Bush's neck. The American people have made it clear that they don't like the way it has gone, and the question uppermost in everyone's mind will be what he will do next in Iraq. He can either start to pull out or, if he is stubborn, carry on as before. Dick Cheney, the vice-president, has already said, "We're not running for office. We're doing what we think is right." But if Mr Bush sticks to his policies, and given that the situation in Iraq can only get worse, the Republicans will almost certainly lose the White House two years from now. That suggests a pull-out before the end of 2007 and before the White House race gets going in earnest. In the end, it looks as though the Bush presidency will be remembered not so much for the "War on Terror" as for the botched war in Iraq, with all the attendant atrocities.

What is altogether unavoidable for the Bush administration now is the need to work with the Democrats. Until now they could be ignored, but no longer. In terms of the work agenda for the next two years, this will have to mean a shift in focus to domestic issues. Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid can now be expected to climb back to the top of the list of things to be done. Since the two parties' positions on these issues are poles apart, what lies in store may be legislative gridlock.

As far as India is concerned, Manmohan Singh will wonder about his nuclear deal. It has been said so far that the nuclear specialists are unhappy with the deal but that the idea of a breakthrough with India enjoys support in both parties, and that in the end India will be seen as more important. But the operative question may well be how badly the Democrats want to give Mr Bush a bloody nose, and how keen they are to deny him a foreign policy success. If it does go through, the deal will have demonstrated genuine bi-artisan support, but for this there will have to be some effective lobbying. If the agreement is dead in the water, the two countries will have to find other ways to give new meaning to their warmed-up relationship.