Nobody had expected President Mahinda Rajapaksa to lose the elections in Sri Lanka: in fact, the prediction was that he and his family had so much at stake, he could even use the generals in the Sri Lankan Army (with a history of botched coups until it won a military victory against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam) to ensure his continuance in power. He has denied he had any such plans but the new government has started an enquiry anyway.
But, about the new low-profile president, Maithripala Sirisena, here are some facts: he is neither a Goyigama, the ruling caste; nor from Kandy, the cultural capital of Buddhist Sri Lanka; nor from Colombo 7, Sri Lanka's equivalent of Lutyens' Delhi, Poes Garden or Malabar Hill. He belongs to upcountry Polonnaruwa, is the son of an agriculturist, got his education from a polytechnic rather than Oxford or Sorbonne. The remarkable thing about him is a streak no one had noticed before: he took a huge risk and took it all.
In India, we had a man who charted the same path as Sirisena. Vishwanath Pratap Singh was Rajiv Gandhi's finance minister. He got up to say in Parliament that the Opposition was dreaming if they thought he would ever join them - and within weeks rather than months, did exactly that. He brought a squabbling Opposition together, bound together by nothing more than to get the Congress government out. Because he had no party, nobody thought of him as a threat: instead, he was a neutral umpire who could get the Left and the Bharatiya Janata Party on the same platform.
Sirisena was a Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga (CBK) "find". It was clear that Rajapaksa would not be dislodged unless the entire Opposition came together. CBK had a problem in accepting the leadership of Ranil Wickremasinghe: a bit like Chandrashekhar accepting V P Singh's claim for prime ministership. But when, more than 18 months ago, she suggested poaching Sirisena from Rajapaksa's government, where he was health minister, Wickremasinghe had no serious objection.
The proposal to work together was first mooted in 2012 in the subcontinent's best known smoke-filled room: the Taj Mansingh. CBK was in Delhi for a conference and met politicians of different hues. The ice was finally broken in early 2014 and talks began in secret over whether everyone could meet everyone halfway - not just CBK's Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremasinghe's United National Party, with cadres who in the past would rather have murdered each other than agree to working together politically, but also the Jathika Hela Urumaya, the right-wing Sinhala Buddhist outfit, which was initially enchanted by Rajapaksa's promises to establish sasana (righteous Buddhist rule) but lost faith later; and the Tamil National Alliance that has 14 seats in Parliament and considerable support in the north and east. Also joining this alliance was the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, which represents moderate Muslim opinion and is preventing community hotheads from taking over, especially after the Sinhala-Muslim riots in Aluthgama, near Colombo, last year.
What will Sirisena's presidency bring to the table for India and China? Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera arrives today in New Delhi. Sirisena is going to try to recalibrate relations with China, which has had a fervent and committed friend in Rajapaksa. Some infrastructure projects awarded to China - admittedly a few because India could not undertake them - will be cancelled. Having cut his political teeth on left wing rhetoric, it will take Wickremasinghe, one of Sri Lanka's most experienced politicians, now the Prime Minister and the most important man in Sri Lanka in the days to come if the government's plans to abolish the executive presidency come to fruition, some effort to re-educate the president.
To prevent its contradictions from taking over the coalition, the safest thing is to focus on the previous government's lapses. While steering clear of emotive and contentious issues such as prosecuting Rajapaksa for crimes against humanity during the war in the north and east (because as part of the government Sirisena was also silently complicit), the coalition will go after nepotism and corruption.
The government is broadly centre-Left and recognises that institutions of market economy cannot be dismantled but rejects conspicuous consumption. Casinos - which were seen as drawing tourists away from gambling centres like Macau into Sri Lanka - will be shut down. Instead, populist policies - like a Vote on Account with special measures to reduce the cost of living; an increase in salaries of government servants; and a reduction of direct and indirect taxes on some goods and services are already part of the 100-day programme. Ravi Karunanayake, a former businessman and trade minister, has been named finance minister. Arjuna Mahendran, former chief investment officer for Emirates NBD Bank, has been appointed Treasury Secretary. More lateral movement from the private sector into government can be expected.
The general impression is that Sirisena is an interim choice, being used to bang the gavel until the coalition has implemented constitutional changes. This is possible if and when parliamentary elections are held and the coalition gets two-thirds majority. Besides, with around 3 percentage points behind Sirisena, Rajapaksa may have lost the election but is not exactly decimated. Too determined an effort to target him will lead to the consolidation of this opinion. Serendip is going to be on the boil for some time.
Disclaimer: These are personal views of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of www.business-standard.com or the Business Standard newspaper
