Epicentre of Covid

India needs a national action plan

India has now become the epicentre of Covid-19, with the maximum number of daily cases happening in this country, and there are no signs of the curve flattening, unlike in most other countries. The data shows that the number of new cases is now slowing both in the US and Brazil. India has crossed the 2 million mark in terms of the number of cases and is now recording more than 60,000 daily infections. The data also suggests that things are unlikely to improve in the near term. Although India has increased the capacity to test about 700,000 samples a day, it is not enough. The positivity rate continues to remain high, which indicates that the problem is only going to get bigger. Even as the load has moderated in large cities, Covid is now spreading in other parts of the country, including rural areas. It would be more difficult to contain the virus in rural areas because of the lack of medical and state capacity.

Given the magnitude of the problem, it is strange that no one in the government is saying anything about it, as though the problem does not exist or has not grown to proportions previously unimagined. There are no daily briefings, no announcement of lengthening “doubling rates”, offering hope. Further, it is not clear as to who is in charge of handling the situation. It was the health minister initially, with significant interventions from the prime minister and his office. Then it was the home minister, especially when things were slipping out of control in Delhi. There is no clarity on who is in charge now. The collective intervention significantly improved things in the city-state. However, it is not clear if India has a national plan to deal with the Covid crisis, or states have now been left to handle things on their own.

It is important to note that apart from being a health crisis, surging infection is coming in the way of economic revival because of local lockdowns and disrupted supply chains. The incoming high-frequency data suggests that economic recovery is faltering. The resumption of business tracked by Nomura through an index, for instance, shows that activity is stuck at about 30 percentage points below the pre-pandemic level, after witnessing a sharp recovery in May and June. The continued spread of the virus will only increase complications on the economic front. 

Sustained localised lockdown or, perhaps, an increase in its frequency and spread would further restrict movement and affect both demand and supply. A deeper than expected contraction will only make things worse. India, therefore, needs a broader strategy to deal with the evolving situation, and the Centre will need to take the lead. It will need to coordinate with states where cases are rising. The issue of finances also needs to be addressed, as states, being on the front line of fighting the pandemic, would need resources. Thus, all possible instruments to bridge the revenue shortfall should be discussed transparently, so that states have better clarity. Overall, since a possible vaccine is still some distance away, India needs renewed focus on containing the pandemic.