Fertiliser deficit

Reports of shortages of fertilisers in several key agricultural pockets are cause for concern, especially since the kharif sowing is round the corner.

What is even more disconcerting is that the scarcity is due largely to the government's inaction. In the last season, too, a similar scarcity had surfaced at many places and the agriculture ministry had put the blame on the fertiliser ministry for not being able to organise timely imports.

The same thing is being repeated now. Though meeting the demand for urea may not be a problem, because the country is nearly self-sufficient in this fertiliser, the phosphatic fertilisers, where the import dependence is high, are anticipated to be in short supply.

The domestic output of these fertilisers, too, depends largely on the imported raw material. Normally, the price of imported phosphoric acid is negotiated with the suppliers by a group of fertiliser companies every year for the whole season to ensure regular supplies and stable prices.

This also helps the government to work out the rate of concession (read subsidy) for phosphatic fertilisers. But, the government this time decided to change the methodology for arriving at the import prices without, strangely enough, having an alternative system in mind.

This has led to the drying up of these imports, jeopardising fertiliser availability in the country. In fact, the reason for this muddle becomes far too obvious when one realises that the fertiliser ministry is headed by Mr Ram Vilas Paswan, who, for several months, has been fully engrossed in Bihar politics.

Indeed, regardless of what and who is responsible for this, the actual impact of the fertiliser shortage will be on the crop yields and overall agricultural production.

As it is, farm output has not been surging ahead satisfactorily for several years. Significantly, fertiliser consumption in all these years, too, has been more or less stagnating, if not declining.

And if this season the fertiliser requirement again remains unmet, the performance of the vital agricultural sector may not be up to the mark even if the monsoon turns out to be normal as predicted by the Meteorological Department in its long-range monsoon prediction. The country can, obviously, ill-afford such a scenario.

The other equally disquieting fall-out of the delay in organising fertiliser imports would be in terms of spurt in fertiliser subsidy. As it is, the international prices of fertilisers and their raw materials and intermediates are heading north for over two years.

Phosphoric acid, which was bought at $402 a tonne last year, is ruling at over $488 at present. And when India, the world's second- largest fertiliser consumer, enters the market in a buy-or-perish situation, the prices are bound to shoot up further, increasing the subsidy burden.

Besides, there is no guarantee that the supplies would be readily available for immediate shipment. Under these circumstances, since the fertiliser minister is unlikely to be disengaged from affairs in Bihar for some more time, it may become necessary for the Prime Minister to intervene in the matter and do the needful to set things right.