GDP: Growth vs levels

India's GDP is unlikely to recover to its 2019-20 level until the second half of 2021-22

In my article last month (“The lockdown hammer”, Business Standard, May 14) I presented two scenarios of real GDP growth during FY 2020/21, one yielding (-) 11 per cent and the other (-) 14 per cent in the full fiscal year, with the damage being concentrated in the first quarter, amounting to (-) 25 per cent and (-) 33 per cent, respectively. At that time I felt a bit lonely, with the IMF, the World Bank, most investment banks and credit rating agencies and dear old finance ministry still clustering their FY 2020-21 growth projections in the 0-2 per cent