Improved prospects

Monsoon may still become erratic in second half

Even as the jury is still out over the technical validity of the official declaration of the monsoon’s onset over Kerala on May 29, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has come out with an updated forecast, projecting the season’s total rainfall to be around 103 per cent of the long period average, against 99 per cent predicted earlier. It has also indicated that the rainfall would be normal, or marginally above normal, in all regions of the country. This is despite a degree of uncertainty created by the conflicting status of the two important monsoon influencers — La Nina (cooling of the waters of the Pacific Ocean) and the Indian Ocean Dipole or IOD (temperature variation between the two sides of the Indian Ocean). The IMD, however, maintains that the number of parameters favourable for the monsoon has risen since the time of the first official forecast issued by it in April. The country’s leading private weather forecaster, Skymet, had disputed the onset of the monsoon over Kerala on technical grounds which the IMD had discounted.

However, regardless of this dissension, the indication of copious rainfall during the four-month monsoon season (June to September) in most parts of the country is good news for the economy, which is recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic shock. Prospects of a bumper kharif harvest would tend to have a sobering effect on the runaway inflation in agricultural commodities, besides providing some relief to consumers, the government and policy planners. It would also boost rural demand for goods and services. Additionally, the rains would replenish reservoirs to irrigate crops and run hydro-power plants. The farmers, who have gained from the current commodity price spike by getting good prices, generally higher than the minimum support price, for their rabi produce, are reported to be well prepared to capitalise on the anticipated good monsoon.

Agricultural experts seem confident that the kharif plantings this year would exceed the normal level of 107 to 108 million hectares. This would help sustain the uptrend in farm output that had continued even during the pandemic period. These hopes are based also on the higher investment capacity of the farmers due to better returns from their last harvest and the reports of robust sales of crop inputs, including seeds and fertilisers. However, this optimism is subject to the prediction of a normal monsoon coming true — which cannot be taken for granted, given the none-too-inspiring track record of previous long-range monsoon forecasts. The actual performance of the monsoon depends, indeed, on several factors, many of which are hard to foresee much in advance.

There is a significant reason to be circumspect on this count this year due to the potential interaction between La Nina and the IOD. While the IMD expects La Nina to remain favourable for the monsoon throughout the rainy season, some weather prediction models used in India and abroad are indicating that the IOD might turn inimical to it from August onwards. The weather pundits, therefore, fear that the monsoon might become erratic in its second half of the season (August-September) after remaining fairly active in the first half (June-July). This would require contingency planning at the state level to save the crops during their development and grain formation stages. State governments would be well advised to be prepared.