Prime Minister Narendra Modi's meeting on Monday with Opposition leaders from Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and his subsequent statement on the need for dialogue should be considered the first sign of hope as the Valley enters the 46th day of unrest following the killing of Burhan Wani, the Hizbul Mujahideen commander. Both, the meeting and the statement, signal a belated understanding by the political establishment that - forceful exhortations by the Home minister and finance minister notwithstanding - the upheavals in the state have less to do with Pakistan fomenting instability in the region than the Indian establishment's acts of omission and commission.
In fact, the recent turmoil occurs at a time when militancy has been noticeably on the wane - fatalities in terrorist violence in J&K fell from a peak of 4,507 in 2001 to 375 in 2010 (the last year of major disaffection) and 174 in 2015. Concomitantly, tourism has risen steadily. Last year, the state welcomed more than 900,000 tourists, including foreigners, and the preliminary figures for early this year suggested that this number might have been surpassed. It was public weariness with militancy and the militants' infighting that ensured this precarious peace but the state and central governments signally failed to capitalise on it. The Indian state's tin ear for Kashmiri aspirations also explains why it failed to spot the growing alienation that has morphed into home-grown militancy. Gratuitous bullying, torture, kidnapping and rape of innocent Kashmiri men and women, even as job opportunities remained out of reach for most, ensured that the Indian state rapidly lost the battle for hearts and minds. Wani's radicalisation from ambitious middle class boy to a gun-toting militant posing defiantly on social media is one chilling example.
But the alienation of ordinary Kashmiris and their corresponding dubious attraction to militants were well in evidence from October last year in the large, sympathetic crowds that gathered at militants' funerals and the popularity of cricket tournaments among teams named for Hizbul Mujahideen commanders. The People's Democratic Party's decision to tie up with the Bharatiya Janata Party - having bitterly opposed it in the past - would have done little to reassure Kashmiris and the extreme response by the establishment to the unrest in the 10 districts that comprise the Valley has only accentuated this distrust.
Now, with 60 civilian deaths and thousands more injured from pellet and bullet wounds, India faces accusations of human rights abuse from international groups. With Mr Modi's Independence Day statement virtually admitting to Indian operations in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir, Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan, India also faces the possibility of Pakistan relaying these charges at the 71st session of the United Nations General Assembly on September 20-26. Given that country's own human rights record, this is a bizarre position for India to finds itself in. It is possible that the prospect of international censure has encouraged the government to come to the negotiating table. If, however, former J&K chief minister Omar Abdullah is to be believed, Mr Modi appears to have understood that "development", this regime's standard panacea, is unlikely to work in the absence of a lasting political solution. In J&K's long and troubled history that marks one big step forward.
