In less than a fortnight, Myanmar’s citizens will be voting in their first multi-party election in 25 years. The last time the country went to vote in an election of this scale, it ended with the opposition leader and winner of the election Aung San Suu Kyi being placed under house arrest, violent shutdown of student protest movements and a vindictive recasting of the constitution.
More than 2 decades later, Suu Kyi is back as the leader of the opposition party, fighting an election, which many say has the potential to serve as a blueprint for Myanmar’s democratic movement. The election, scheduled for November 8th, is riddled with uncertainties. It is not expected to be completely free or fair. Voter turnout is expected to be low, given the various insurgencies, citizenship issues and natural calamities. The only thing that is certain, however, is that no matter what the result, the military will hold on to its constitutionally guaranteed 25% seat share in the parliament and Suu Kyi will not be the president, as the new constitution bars her from the post.
The election, however imperfect and unpredictable, remains critical for Myanmar and the neighbourhood. Foremost among the many reasons, is that it will grant a degree of legitimacy to the incoming government within the international community. This acceptance is seen as critical, for a country struggling to distance itself from China’s increasing and potentially destabilizing influence in its internal politics. The self-imposed alienation for the last three decades, and the absolute control by the military in decision making has resulted in it being seen as a vassal of its larger northern neighbor - China. The disproportionate nature of the relationship has cost Myanmar the support of its many ethnic regions bordering China, resulting in widespread, turbulent insurgent movements.
The Thein Sein government since 2010 has made a conscious and consistent effort to disengage from China and her investments, while inviting countries like India, Japan, Thailand and the US to lend a hand in improving the country’s infrastructure and economy. Reform measures put into place have seen greater investments. New technology has dramatically improved life styles, resulting in greater participation with the global economy. There has also been a significant increase in press freedom within the country. Part of the reason behind holding the elections at this moment in Myanmar’s history is to acquire that extra veneer of legitimacy that a democratically elected government would offer in the country’s dealing with the international community.
For a country that has remained isolated both within and without for the past two decades, the press freedom and the information deluge, post 2010 has had a dramatic impact. The rise of networked societies within the country, and the adoption of smart phones and social networks has been significant enough that one of Suu Kyi’s first announcement, once campaigning started, was through a Facebook video. With rapid urbanization, migration into cities and greater access to technology, the post 88 generation will play a significant role in determining the future of their country. Myanmar’s determination to transition to a controlled, disciplined democracy hinges on this generation and how they choose to make their voice heard.
The 2014 government approved census, its first in 30 years, put 55% of the population under 30, and almost 89% of the above 15 population declared themselves to be literate. Suu Kyi and other candidates have assured them jobs, wider reforms that will attract greater investments, better education infrastructure. What they will require are training in the services industry, and targeted investments which will significantly improve the standard of living within the country.
It is an opportune moment for India to develop a strong, working relationship with Myanmar. Policy paralysis, bureaucratic bungles have all impacted the relationship with the country. Ethnic insurgencies along the border and an on/off relationship with the military and the USDP has been the subject of criticism from various quarters. The current government has shown some initiative with its “Act East” projections. A more serious, coherent and consistent policy is required to carry the relationship forward.
There remains a great degree of uncertainty. One of the biggest remains the reaction of the military to an NLD landslide victory. The chances of that however remain slim, given that a record 6,100 candidates from 93 parties will be contesting for 1171 seats of the upper and lower houses. The president will not be chosen till March 2016, and the lack of clarity in the intervening months could have a destabilizing effect. Ethnic tensions, mass migrations, religious tensions, are of significant concern. There is, however a real chance that democracy will prevail. How the neighbourhood will be impacted and how it will react remains to be seen.
Priya Ravichandran is an alumni of the Takshashila Institution. She blogs at Aequalis on the Indian National Interest platform and is a frequent contributor to Pragati - The Indian National Interest review. She tweets as @binaryfootprint
