Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech in the Chhattisgarh capital, Raipur, on November 1 was not received well by opponents of Chief Minister Raman Singh.
Although these leaders knew that Modi would not criticise the chief minister from his party publicly, they did not expect that the prime minister would be so generous as to praise him beyond a perfunctory gesture.
“Your dreams will be fulfilled by Raman Singh,” Modi told the rally. A senior minister known as Singh’s bête noire later quipped to a senior party functionary after the programme: “Yeh kuch zyada ho gaya (this was a little over the top).”
The prime minister was followed by Bharatiya Janata Party President Amit Shah on December 12. He, too, gave a jolt to Singh’s opponents by stating that he was the best chief minister in the country.
This is the asset that Singh has amassed in his 13 years as chief minister. The party falters at the thought of a leadership change in Chhattisgarh. The performance of his government may be debatable. What remains unquestionable, though, is his burgeoning clout in political circles and the party organisation over 13 years.
The 64-year-old Ayurvedic doctor-turned politician assumed the office of chief minister on December 7, 2003. He was Union minister of state for commerce and industry from 1999 to 2003 in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government. He quit as minister and assumed the new assignment of the president of the BJP unit in the new state of Chhattisgarh ahead of the Assembly polls in 2003.
Singh has learnt the art of politics. While he has cornered his detractors within the party, the Congress has failed in its role of the Opposition party. Barring statements, the party has not been able to grill Singh either in the Assembly or outside it.
Over the years, Singh has won the confidence of the party organisation. This can be gauged from the fact that there has been no second-in-command in the state in all these years. The party organisation has given an overt signal that the next Assembly election (due late 2018 or early 2019) in the state would be contested under Singh’s leadership.
Yet the road ahead for the chief minister is bumpy as the ruling BJP starts preparing for the polls. Anti-incumbency will be high when he seeks a mandate for a fourth successive term. But Singh is confident. “In 13 years, I have succeeded in bringing a smile on people’s faces; this is the strength to nullify the anti-incumbency factor,” he said. He added that people have full trust in the BJP government following its development model.
The biggest threat would be the changing political fabric. Since the inception of the state 16 years ago, its politics has been bipolar. After 13 years of his tenure, Singh will face a third front that has been emerging after Congress stalwart Ajit Jogi quit the party and floated his political outfit, the Chhattisgarh Janata Congress.
Singh admitted that the 2018 poll would be a three-way contest but was optimistic that the tide would be in his favour. “The Congress will contest the elections in two parts after Jogi left the party to form a political outfit,” he said. “This will ultimately help the BJP.”
In the 2013 state polls, the difference in vote share between the BJP and the Congress was less than one per cent. Of the total 90 Assembly constituencies in Chhattisgarh that went to the polls in two phases in November 2013, the BJP won 49 and the Congress 39, leaving the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Independent with one each.
Jogi, the bureaucrat-turned-politician who has a considerable hold over the Backward Classes (BC) and Other Backward Classes (OBC), is likely to make inroads into the Congress vote bank. According to political observers, he will play spoilsport for the party.
Jogi has a strong arithmetical understanding of the 90 constituencies in the state and a stronghold among a large section of sub-castes and OBCs. He’s known as a master manipulator. With son Amit by his side, Jogi has built a strong team of young voters. A section of the current Congress members of the Assembly is in a dilemma: Should they side with Jogi or not? However, two of them, apart from a few former Assembly members, have openly supported Jogi.
Despite the possibility of Jogi eating into the Congress vote share, the BJP can’t be complacent. If Jogi’s party manages to bag 10 seats that would be a game changer. The possibility of any party getting absolute majority appears bleak, with a third front likely to play the role of kingmaker.
Disclaimer: These are personal views of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of www.business-standard.com or the Business Standard newspaper
