Three big questions now matter for the world economy. In the US, macroeconomic stability is threatened by an inflation crisis, and there are concerns about monetary policy strategy there. In China, a big non-market economy was built up, but it suffers from internal contradictions, and there is a spot of distress. While Russia is a small economy, the combination of war in Ukraine and the suddenness of the economic collapse can generate ripples into the world economy. We should worry about the possibility of tail events in the coming year.
The most important element of the global macro is the
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