Too much, too soon

States should take a cautious approach to reopening

The United Kingdom, one of the most highly vaccinated countries in the world, just postponed its highly anticipated reopening by at least a month — partly because of the threat posed to public health by the Delta variant, which was first identified in Maharashtra. India, however, which has just suffered through a devastating second wave partly driven by this new and more transmissible variant, does not seem to be willing to recognise that some social distancing norms must continue — even though the country is far less vaccinated than the UK. Delhi, for example, removed some movement restrictions this week. Shops in malls and market complexes, for example, have been opened for all days of the week; restaurants have also reopened. The government has asked these locations to run at 50 per cent capacity, but it is far from certain how this can be enforced. Other cities and states have also eased their restrictions as the numbers have apparently fallen.

The question is whether this easing of restrictions is scientifically legitimate, and whether it demonstrates learning from the last wave. Many experts, including those from the World Health Organization reporting at the G7 meeting in Cornwall this weekend, have blamed the second wave of coronavirus cases in India on “premature” reopening. While the economic impact of social distancing norms cannot be denied, it is also true that high mortality and morbidity will have an economic impact as well — aside from its humanitarian cost. The Union government has left lockdown decisions to the state governments. This might be in keeping with the spirit of federalism and the need to ensure the appropriate responsiveness to local conditions. But there should also be broad evidence-based guidelines on how and when to reopen available to policymakers at both state and local level. This should take into account the most recent science on Covid-19 variants as well as on how the virus spreads. In some places, for example, malls have opened but oddly, in spite of ample evidence that the virus spreads less effectively in the open air than in enclosed spaces, parks are to remain closed. New guidelines should also emphasise air filtration and ample ventilation as determinants of whether indoor spaces are more or less safe to reopen. States should be encouraged to follow these evidence-based guidelines if a third wave is not to occur sooner than expected.

In the early days of the pandemic last year, the prime minister and other senior officials took the lead in emphasising Covid-appropriate behaviour, including social distancing and masking up. Many have continued to call for responsible behaviour. Yet more is needed. Individuals need to feel social pressure to wear masks, and to be informed on how to wear them properly. Those who can afford higher-quality masks should be encouraged to wear them instead of cloth masks that provide only partial protection. A mass campaign needs to be carried out to reinforce messages that have already been provided. Government officials and political leaders must ensure that they are setting the appropriate example by not attending crowded functions and by exclusively appearing wearing N95 masks. The overconfidence that marked the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021 should never be allowed to recur.