With differences still unresolved and the deadline for a deal nearing, Iran and the US have a choice to make: Extend nuclear talks for a second time or face the risk of renewed confrontation and armed conflict.
US Secretary of State John Kerry meets tomorrow in Vienna with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to try and advance the talks and meet the target date of November 24. But with less than six weeks left until November 24, there may be no alternative to prolonging them.
Iran denies wanting nuclear weapons. But if the talks fail, Tehran will return to expanding programs that could be turned from peaceful purposes to making such arms. That in turn could revive the chance of a new Middle East conflict through attacks by Israel and possibly the US.
The Americans insist the focus remains on sealing a deal by the end of the current four-month extension, but refuse to rule out that they will continue past November 24. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said last week that Tehran is already talking to the US and five other world powers at the talks about a possible extension.
That may not happen, though, if the critics have their way.
Opposition is certain from skeptics in US Congress and from Iran's hardliners. Both already fear a nuclear sellout. Seeing prolongation as a trick by the opponent to gain further advantage, they are likely to use all possible means to oppose it.
"I think the extension will be very difficult to negotiate," said Gary Samore, who left the US team negotiating with Iran last year. "It is likely to be strongly resisted both in Washington and Tehran."
Samore, who is now with Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, said an extension is achievable only if both sides feel they have come away with rewards.
