Recent unseasonal rains in the major agrarian states of the country is likely to hit the rabi crops production by 15 per cent and could stoke food inflation in double digits, according to an analysis.
In an analysis done by the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, rabi crops food grain production may fall short of estimates by 20 million tonnes.
As per the analysis, major crops which have been affected by the rains and hailstorm are; wheat, barley, oilseeds, sunflower, pulses, peas, massor, beans and vegetables in many states.
"According to 2nd Advance Estimates, rabi crops food grain production is estimated at around 135 million tonnes during 2013-14 which may not be materialised due to unwanted rains. And production may fall to the level of 115 million tonnes," the survey said.
The overall foodgrain production, including rabi and kharif crops, may fall to the level of 243 million tonnes only during the current financial year as against the 2nd advance estimates of 263 million tonnes, it added.
States which have been impacted by unwanted rains are Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand.
These states contribute around 73 per cent in India's total food grains production.
As a result of this untimely rains, the cultivation of crops in these states would now require multiple labour efforts resulting in a three fold jump in the man hours and result in lower acreage and shortfall in production, the analysis pointed.
The fall in food grain production scenario may stoke food inflation as the demand supply gap in various food items is already on the borderline, it added.
Industry chamber has also suggested government should take effective steps to make sure that the supply of essential food items is not affected at this juncture.
