13th Normal Monsoon In A Row, Says Met Forecast

The country is heading for the 13th good monsoon in a row. According to the India Meteorological Department, the southwest monsoon this year will set in over the Kerala coast on time, around June 1, and will bring normal rainfall throughout the country in the four-month rainy season from June to September.

The cumulative precipitation during the season is likely to be 99 per cent of the long-period average of 88 cm, with a model error of plus or minus four per cent.

The drought-affected regions of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh are also expected to receive normal rainfall. However, the monsoon will arrive in Rajasthan and Gujarat only around the normal time in the beginning of July though it will set in over Andhra Pradesh earlier.

 

The current spell of good monsoon began in 1988 soon after the severe country-wide drought in 1987. While the overall rainfall was in excess of normal in 1988, it was more or less normal in the subsequent 11 years since 1989.

Announcing the long-range monsoon forecast, IMD chief R R Kelkar said 10 of the 16 regional and global land-ocean-atmospheric parameters used in the monsoon prediction model are favourable to a normal rainfall this year.

The IMD has, however, modified the set of monsoon predictors, replacing four parameters, he said. The IMD has been using the indigenously developed power regression model for predicting monsoon performance since 1988 with a fair amount of accuracy.

The southwest monsoon was already active over the Andaman islands, where it arrived as scheduled on May 15. It is progressing normally in the Bay of Bengal, heading towards the mainland. The eastern region of the country is already witnessing good pre-monsoon activity, which is likely to continue till the monsoon breaks over the region after a few days.