The export-import ratio, an indicator of the extent to which exports can finance imports, declined marginally to 88.1 per cent during April to October from 89.3 per cent during April to October 1996. As a consequence there was a widening of the trade deficit.
During April to October, exports registered a moderate growth of 5.2 per cent to stand at $19,885 million, down from last year's figure of 9.9 per cent, according to the provisional data available with the directorate general of commercial intelligence and statistics (DGCI&S).
Meanwhile, imports at $22,562 million recorded a growth rate of 6.5 per cent, marginally up from the 6.4 per cent for the corresponding period of the previous year.
Consequently, the trade deficit widened to $2,677 million in April to October from $2,276 million in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Trade deficit during 1996-97 rose marginally to $5,442 million from $4,881 million in the preceding year mainly due to the bulge in oil imports.
The slowdown in exports is attributed to the decline in the growth rate of primary products exports, and also due to the slowdown in world exports in 1996. Import growth was mainly due to the substantial rise in oil imports. The decline in non-oil imports, on account of a substantial drop in domestic activities and sluggish growth of import-related exports, helped contain the trade deficit.
In 1996-97, while the overall export performance was unsatisfactory, relative export performance of individual groups differed significantly. While primary goods exports recorded a growth of 8.9 per cent, manufactured goods export was much more decelerated at 3.6 per cent. The percentage share of primary goods exports in total exports expanded to 23.9 per cent in 1996-97 from 22.8 per cent the previous year. Correspondingly, the percentage share of exports of manufactured goods declined marginally from 73.9 per cent to 73.5 per cent.
The deceleration in aggregate imports was primarily due to a sharp decline in non-bulk imports. During the year, non-bulk imports showed an absolute decline of 0.6 per cent against a sharp rise of 29 per cent during the preceding year. Consequently, the share of non-bulk imports in total imports contracted considerably to 57.6 per cent from 61 per cent during the previous year. The shift in direction of trade observed in the last few years continued. Trade with middle-income and low-income countries has been rising. The percentage share of these countries in India's exports went up considerably to 28.9 per cent in 1995-96 and further to 29.9 per cent in 1996-97, from 17.1 per cent in 1990-91.
Similarly, their share in India's total imports rose from 18.7 per cent in 1990-91 to 22.2 per cent in 1995-96 and thereafter witnessed a marginal decline to 21.5 per cent in 1996-97.
The Asian countries in particular have emerged as the leading trading partners among the developing countries with their share in India's exports rising from 14.4 per cent in 1990-91 to 23 per cent in 1995-96 and further to 24.1 per cent in 1996-97.
While the SAARC countries continue to be important trading partners, the emergence of other Asian countries such as China, Taiwan, Israel, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, among others, as partners in recent years has contributed to the growing prominence of Asian countries in India's trade.
