Fao Forecasts Fall In Global Wheat Output

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Agency (FAO) said yesterday that global wheat export prices had dipped after a surge in April and were substantially lower than a year ago.

After a sharp rise in international grain prices in 1995-96, wheat and maize prices have dropped by 30 and 40 percent respectively from their peak monthly levels a year ago in May 1996, FAO said in its two-monthly Food Outlook.

The Rome-based agency said wheat export prices had fallen to $162 per tonne towards the end of May from $200 per tonne in April, after earlier fears that the 1997-98 supply would outweigh demand proved false. Wheat output was forecast at 583 million tonnes against 590 million tonnes last season and 547 million in 1995-96, a year when poor harvests created an extremely tight supply situation, the report said.

 

FAO also said it expected world cereal output in 1997-98 to yield 1,887 million tonnes, up slightly from the forecast of 1,880 million tonnes made in Aprils report. FAO said the figures confirmed that global cereal output was above the trends for the second year in succession and would meet consumption requirements in 1997-98.

, possibly allowing for a replenishment of stocks.

The agency cautioned that despite optimism in the overall supply situation, food emergencies remained in 29 countries, mainly in the Great Lakes region of Africa, North Korea and Tajikistan.

Also, in the report, FAO forecast world sugar production for 1996-97 at 122.5 million tonnes. This was lower than record levels last season but would allow for a supply surplus over demand and force prices down in the short term, the report said.