First Signs Of Monsoon At Andamans

The south-west monsoon is likely to hit the south Andaman sea on time early next week, according to India Meteorological Department.

The department said upper air disturbances had been noticed over the Bay of Bengal around the Andamans. Strong winds, which also indicate the arrival of the monsoon, are also blowing in the region.

"However, we will watch for at least 48 hours more before saying anything about the southwest monsoon," a senior IMD official said. However, there is no indication of the likely date of its arrival on the mainland_at the Kerala coast_yet.

The IMD's long-range forecast for the year 2000 will be finalised by May 24 and formally announced on May 25. The data for the monsoon prediction model, based on 16 regional and global land-ocean-atmosphere related parameters, is still being collected and analysed, he said.

 

In fact, cloud clusters were spotted over the Andaman sea early this week. These were accompanied by atmospheric conditions favourable for the development of a low-pressure area in that region.

The eastern states have been experiencing heavy rains since the last week of April, although the western part of the country, especially Rajasthan and Gujarat, are reeling under severe drought.

Last year, the south-west monsoon hit the Andaman sea on May 20 and advanced to the Kerala coast on May 25, about a week ahead of the normal date of June 1.

There is no well-established correlation between the monsoon reaching the Andaman sea and its advance to the mainland. However, its breaking over the Andaman sea on the normal date is taken generally as a favourable sign of its timely arrival in the mainland.

According to the normal schedule, the monsoon hits the Kerala coast or the north-eastern tip of the country around June 1 and then gradually advances further in surges to reach Mumbai and Calcutta by June 10 and Delhi by June 29.