Gdp Likely To Be Revised To 7% This Year

The lower base will result in a rise in the forecast for the current year. In fact, if the last yearstrajectory is maintained, the growth rate for 1996-97 would go up to 7.08 per cent. The CSO would, however, be revising the estimates in January. The NCAER is also likely to revise its GDP estimate of 6.1 per cent for 1996-97..

The sharp fall in foodgrain production from the previous estimate of 191 million tonnes to 185 mt and a marginal decline in industrial output has resulted in a lower estimate for 1995-96.

While manufacturing is down from 14.2 per cent to 13.5 per cent, agriculture, forestry and fishing is down from 2.4 per cent in July when the 7 per cent estimate was released to 0.9 per cent. This has, however, been partially offset by an improvement in the performance of the services sector, according to the latest CSO data.

 

The GDP at factor cost has gone down from Rs 268671 crore on July 12 to Rs 267461 crore now. Sources agreed that the GDP forecast for 1996-97 would go up.