Grain Output Down 6 Million Tonnes In 95-96

Latest official estimates indicate a drop of over 4.5 million tonnes in the output of main cereals, rice and wheat, while coarse grains accounted for a fall of another 0.5 million tonnes. Significantly, pulses, which are already in short supply, also registered a steep decline of over 1.15 million tonnes last year compared with 1994-95.

The modified estimates, not yet officially released by Krishi Bhawan, are based on the fresh information received from states.

The Economic Survey Update, presented in Parliament before this year's regular budget, had projected the foodgrain output at 190.4 million tonnes, merely 0.4 per cent down from the record 191.1 million tonnes in 1994-95. It had projected the overall growth of agricultural crop production, which averaged over four per cent since 1992-93, to decline to 0.9 per cent in 1995-96.

 

The latest data, indicating a 3.19-per cent fall in foodgrain output alone, would require the growth figures to be revised downwards. The overall agricultural growth is likely to show a net decline despite some increase in the production of commercial crops, notably oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane, in 1995-96.

This trend is being viewed by food experts as ominous because of its adverse bearing on the country's food security. The public food stocks, which peaked at a high of 35.6 million tonnes in July 1995, have plummeted to 20.1 million tonnes at the end of the current month due to a sharp decline of seven million tonnes in grain procurement for the Central grain pool. The procurement of wheat fell by about four million tonnes while that of rice by three million tonnes.

This has forced the government to stop issuing wheat and rice for exports from the public stock. The open market sales of foodgrains by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) has also virtually been stopped.Only a limited quantity is earmarked every month for market intervention operations to keep the prices in check.

The prices of foodgrains have tended to go up, reflecting lower production. Wheat prices in the wholesale market have gone up, on an average, by about 17 per cent between August 1995 and August 1996.

The prices of other essential items, including pulses, have also tended to firm up due to a gap of nearly three million tonnes in the domestic production and actual requirement.

Oilseed prices have, however, remained more or less stable, thanks to increased production (up from 21.42 million tonnes in 1994-95 to 22.62 million tonnes in 1995-96) and larger edible oil imports encouraged by 10 per cent reduction in import duty."-->