Highly Charged Debate

But the speed and manner of their introduction, and the scale of the contributions they can make, remain contentious.

Nowhere is the debate more lively than in the European Union. Last November, the European Commission published a green paper suggesting that, provided member states agree on a clear strategy, renewables market share could double to 12 per cent by 2010.

At that time, the European Parliament called for an ambitious 15 per cent target. Now, following public consultation (concluded last month), a resolution from the European Parliament and discussion at the council of ministers, a white paper and action plan are in preparation for publication later this year.

 

Renewables supply less than 6 per cent of the EUs gross energy consumption as a whole, and of this 90 per cent comes from large scale hydro-electric schemes. But the greatest scope for growth is likely to be in other renewable energy technologies. And, according to some analysts, European companies have built us significant international advantages in many of the most promising, including small scale hydro, wind power, aspects of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation, and solar thermal power.

It is a period of extraordinary opportunity. European electricity systems are undergoing profound technological and regulatory changes, explains Michael Grubb, head of the energy and environment programme at the Royal Institute for International Affairs and author of a recent study on the prospects for renewable energy in Europe (Renewable Energy Strategies for Europe Vol II).

The need to retire old plants and meet new demand may require as much new capacity to be installed in the years up to 2020 as currently exists, with total investments exceeding Ecu 500bn ($575bn), he says.

But the place of renewables in the market is far from assured. An EU directive agreed last year that from 1998, energy consumers will be able to shop around for the cheapest power everywhere except Belgium, Portugal and Greece. And so long as the emission of carbon is not regarded as pollution which bears an economic cost, combined cycle gas turbine power generation is likely to offer by far the cheapest means of electricity generation in the great majority of cases.

Hitherto, most renewables in Europe have depended on subsidies. But current systems for premium payment on renewable in continental Europe cannot be sustained in the face of growing renewable capacities and increasing competition, says the study.

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