Sp In For Big Setback Despite Mulayam

The Samajwadi Party is in for a major setback in the Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh. Apart from the serious problems faced by party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav in Sambhal, another senior party leader, Beni Prasad Verma, Union minister for communications, is reported to be trailing in Kaisergunj.

There are two major reasons for the Samajwadi Partys predicament. One, nowhere in the state has it been able to win over a large section of Muslim or Yadav vote, which has gone elsewhere. Two, the party has clearly not been able to make its presence felt, and faces the prospects of losing most of the seats it held in the last Lok Sabha.

 

There is no way Verma can win. He is said to be trailing in Kaisergunj due to the shift of a major chunk of Mulims voters to his main rival, Farid Mahfouz Kidwai, an MLA of the Bahujan Samaj Party. In Kaisergunj Bazaar, a Haji says that at least 30 per cent Muslim vote would go in favour of Kidwai, but the actual percentage could be more.

Voters point out that apart from Muslims, even the Kurmis-Verma himself is a senior Kurmi leader-would go against him. The same is true of the Yadavs. Locals say that the situation has been brought about by the depredations of Samajwadi Party MLAs and Vermas close associates as well. However, there are quite a few defenders too, who point out the work done in the area of telecommunications. The area has many telephone exchanges and even villages have a telephone each.

In 1996, the BJP won in Kaisergunjs assembly segements of Farkhapur and Mahsi, both dominated by Brahmins. But Verma scored in three other segments, winning by a margin of about 23,000 votes. But this time, the BJP is again the favourite in the two segments, while Verma may scrape through in the Kaisergunj assembly segment.

But Kidwai is expected to score in the other two segments of Dariabad and Ramnagar where it is the BJP candidate that is expected to finish second, not Verma. Locals recall that until some time ago, Verma used to move in a car with window panes shut. But now he lowers them and acknowledges greetings, but this is unlikely to help him win.

In Lakhimpur, the BJP faces a strong anti-incumbency factor, which has made the task easy for parties like the Samajwadi Party. The local assessment is that a large number of BJP voters would shift to the Congress, making it a Samajwadi Party-Congress fight. Here again, at least 20 per cent of the Muslim vote is said to have shifted to the Congress.

In Bahraich, BSP candidate Arif Mohammed Khan is expected to sail through, again due to the incumbency factor ranged against the BJP. The BJPs sitting MP, Padam Sen Chowdhary, is regarded as one who does not do anything for the people. In contrast, Arif Mohammed Khan is credited with having done a lot for the constituency, as an MP or even otherwise.

In Shahabad, there are too many candidates opposing the BJP, which makes the BJP candidate the frontrunner. The party is expected to wrest the seat from the BSP. Brahmins in the area are likely to vote for the BJP rather than caste brethern Ashok Vajpayee of the Samajwadi party.

The trend in the middle Terai area broadly confirms to the new pattern: that the Muslims and Yadavs are no more en bloc loyal to the Samajwadi Party. However, within the Muslim community the Samajwadi Party continues to have a presence, with at least 50,000 to 70,000 in each constituency.

These are generally uneducated Muslims and are more conservative. But in the final analysis this ensures the defeat of non-BJP candidates.

The situation before the swift events in Lucknow on February 21 clearly indicated that the BJP would win at least 60 of the 85 seats in the state. The greatest advantage of the BJP has been the projection of Atal Behari Vajpayee as the next prime minister. He not only stalled the shift of Brahmin and other votes to the Congress, his personality and stature also helped overcome the anti-incumbency factor to a large extent.

Another favourable factor for the BJP has been a distinct change in the attitude of Muslims. This large minority has thrown up a variety of currents that were unthinkable only a few months ago. A major section has not only shifted out of the Samajwadi Party, everywhere a few Muslims have openly come out in favour of the BJP. This may not mean much in terms of numbers, but is indicative of the changing perceptions of the community.

Lack of unity in the opposition, especially the fielding of candidates by the Janata Dal and the CPI, has led to the United Front being demolished in the state. These parties may not be able to win any seat, but have sufficient base to damage the Samajwadi Party. The BSPs strategy not to ally with the Congress has helped the party in not only retaining the seats it had, but also to think in terms of increasing the tally. By refusing to ally with the Congress, it have allowed more then three formations in the fray, something which always benefits the BSP.

The Congress chose its candidates carefully. In many seats the party is expected to increase its vote percentage, but is expected to fall short of winning. But the fact remains that the party has bounced back into reckoning in the state.

The 1998 election can be termed a landmark election in the sense that the voters have shown the courage to make a break from the past, forcing the parties not to take them for granted.

If a party does not field a proper candidate , it cannot hope to retain its voters or for that matter even its cadres. There is a desire to have better representatives than has been the case until now.