Page 5 - Mahesh Vyas

Double-digit unemployment rate makes a return

The unemployment rate touched 14.5 per cent in the week ended May 16, 2021

Recovery faces demand constraints

While the supply-side has sprung back at least in the large organised sectors, the demand side continues to remain broken. The demand constraints will pose a challenge to the recovery process

Pessimism on the rise: Consumer sentiment weakens in April amid Covid surge

Consumer sentiments have been battered particularly badly during the last three weeks

Households wary of discretionary spending

The RBI Current Situation Index has been negative in all surveys conducted in the past four years except the one in March 2019

Lockdowns again: Migrant crisis to job cuts, fear has come back too soon

The lockdown will hurt urban employment in April or beyond

Savings and sentiments in the recovery process

The March 2021 RBI Bulletin states that household financial savings in India shot up to 21% of GDP in the first quarter of 2020-21

Consumer durables companies' price gamble

The festive season is over and demand for most consumer durables has weakened. Companies are therefore testing a difficult market as they seek to protect their margins

Return to a declining gradient

The small fall in the unemployed we see does not imply that more people got employment

Consumer sentiment in India's recovery

Growth that bounced back from -23.9 per cent in the first quarter to -7.5 per cent now seems poised to return to the positive zone in the third quarter

Year begins well as January recovers employment loss of past three months

Employment in India is still lower than it was before the lockdown, but there are lesser unemployed people willing to work as well. The recovery is still incomplete but, we made good progress in Jan

Not a Budget for employment

Compared to a year ago, employment in January 2020 was lower by 9.8 million

A missed opportunity: Eco Survey fails to address the problem of employment

The Survey concludes that the lockdown was a critical instrument in flattening the curve and saving lives

In India's K-shaped economic recovery, keep a watch on middle-income groups

India's better-than-expected recovery story was scripted by households, and not government spending or private sector investments

Labour turns to agri, construction as manufacturing fails to create jobs

Manufacturing accounted for 40 million jobs in 2019-20. In the first quarter this dropped to 24.6 million, implying a loss of over 15 million manufacturing jobs

Recovery on thin ice as India finds itself in a crater on employment front

Economic recovery either stopped in the third quarter or it stopped showing up in recovery in employment

Labour markets disappoint in Dec

The count of the unemployed mounted to 38.7 million in December 2020 compared to 27.4 million in November, registering a massive increase of 11.3 million

Female workforce shrinks in economic shocks

Given that men continue to be considered as the principal earning member of a household, women are unlikely to accept poor quality jobs

Five million potential workers may have left the labour force entirely

It appears that the recovery phase of employment is over and a decline is setting in again

Profit vs wages: Lockdown has taught firms a lesson that will hurt labour

Owners of capital have benefitted well in these very difficult times. But labour has not been as lucky

October saw first fall in employment rate since the recovery began

What is significant is that the process of recovery of jobs that was robust during May, June, July and which slowed down in August and September now has reversed into a fall in employment in October