First FY26 GDP advance estimates on Wednesday; growth seen at 7.4% or above

The First Advance Estimates provide the earliest projection of annual economic growth by the statistics ministry and forms the base for key FY27 Budget calculations

A number of  economists expect India’s economy to expand by 7.4 per cent or more in 2025-26, as the National Statistical Office prepares to publish the first advance estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for the ongoing financial year on Wednesday. 

This will be the final GDP-related data release based on the 2011-12 base year, ahead of the rollout of a new national accounts series with a 2022-23 base next month. 

The first advance estimates would offer the earliest official projection on annual growth and form the basis for key calculations in the 2026-27 Union Budget, including fiscal deficit, spending and debt ratios. These also would underpin policy assumptions on tax buoyancy, state-wise devolution, and borrowing requirements.