Economy Growth Forecast

FY27 growth forecast not contingent on US trade deal, says CEA Nageswaran

CEA V Anantha Nageswaran says industry cannot be protected forever, backs reforms for sustained 7% growth, and stresses innovation and exports as key to India's economic future

Economic Survey 2025-26: India's growth outlook strong, focus on resilience

CEA V Anantha Nageswaran said that inflation is largely contained, rainfall and agricultural prospects are supportive, external liabilities remain low, and banks are in good health

India remains global growth engine, will upgrade forecast soon: IMF

The IMF said India continues to anchor global growth, adding that recent economic data has outperformed expectations and could prompt a higher growth projection in its January review

First FY26 GDP advance estimates on Wednesday; growth seen at 7.4% or above

The First Advance Estimates provide the earliest projection of annual economic growth by the statistics ministry and forms the base for key FY27 Budget calculations

India's economy in 2025: Low inflation, FTAs and GDP growth amid US tariffs

With inflation easing, tax revenues rising and major FTAs taking effect, India's economy held firm in 2025 even as US tariffs and global slowdown fears weighed on trade

ECB keeps interest rates steady, raises growth and inflation forecasts

The ECB now sees inflation at 1.9% in 2026, above its previous projection for 1.7% while 2027 inflation is projected at 1.8%, below the 1.9% seen in September

Agri growth estimated to be lower at 4% in FY26: Niti's Ramesh Chand

India's agriculture sector growth is estimated to be lower at 4 per cent in the 2025-26 financial year compared to the rate of 4.6 per cent recorded in the previous fiscal, a senior government official said on Monday. "It (agri growth) will be close to 4 per cent in FY 2025-26. It is difficult to attribute reasons for lower growth at this point of time," Ramesh Chand, member of government think tank Niti Aayog, told PTI on the sidelines of an agri business summit. The agri growth keeps fluctuating as base effect is low. The flood impact in Punjab is only in a limited area, and that is unlikely to bring down the state's growth, he said. "Looking at the first half of FY 2025-26 growth figures for agriculture sector, the second half will be normal," Chand noted. Farm growth was estimated at 3.7 per cent in the first quarter and 3.5 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal year. In 2024-25, overall farm growth reached 4.63 per cent, he added. Chand said India's agricultura

India's economy outdoes expectations but rupee strain raises fresh risks

The headline inflation reading for October, at 0.25 per cent, was the lowest in the current series. The MPC has revised the inflation projection for the current year to 2 per cent

ADB lowers FY27 India growth forecast to 6.5% citing US tariff impact

The Asian Development Bank lowered India's FY26 growth projection to 6.5% from 6.7%, citing steep US tariffs that could hit exports, manufacturing and investment in key sectors

Revenue deficit, capital spends: Key takeaways from 15th finance commission

The 15th FC had recommended a sizeable Rs. 2.9 trillion as revenue deficit grants (RDG) to a select number of states for FY2022-FY2026

'Lack of data': RBI keeps GDP forecast unchanged despite Trump's 25% tariff

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra says global uncertainties were already factored in previous growth forecasts and that RBI will continue to monitor macro conditions before revising projections

RBI lowers inflation forecast to 3.1% for FY26; growth outlook unchanged

August MPC: RBI cuts FY26 inflation forecast to 3.1% on easing food prices, favourable monsoon; growth outlook steady at 6.5%, CRR cut to begin in September

Icra retains India's FY26 GDP forecast at 6.2% despite rising global risks

Rating agency Icra on Wednesday retained its India's GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2025-26 at 6.2 per cent, assuming well-distributed monsoons and crude oil prices averaging around USD 70/barrel. However, geopolitical tensions in West Asia, volatility in financial markets, and uncertain trade policies pose downside risks to this growth outlook, which have intensified, Icra said in its Macro Update June 2025. Reserve Bank has projected the GDP growth at 6.5 per cent. "Economic activity has displayed a mixed trend in the first two months of FY2026, with only nine of the 17 non-agri indicators showing an improvement over Q4 FY2025, even as the output of summer crops is estimated to grow at a healthy pace," the report said. The early onset of monsoons in May 2025 partly weighed upon the performance of the electricity and mining sectors. It also said the prospects for urban consumption remain bright owing to the income tax relief, rate cuts and softening food inflation. However, glob

India's domestic growth looks steady, but external risks are a key concern

Nonetheless, higher agricultural output and lower food inflation will allow the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to ease policy

UN cuts India's 2025 growth forecast to 6.3% amid global tensions

UN WESP report lowers India's growth outlook for 2025 to 6.3 per cent, citing rising trade tensions and policy uncertainty, but notes strength in consumption and investment

IMF cuts India's FY26 growth forecast to 6.2% amid trade tensions

The WEO stressed that swift escalation of trade tensions has generated extremely high levels of policy ambiguity, making it more difficult than usual to establish a central global growth outlook

Goldman Sachs cuts China GDP growth forecasts citing tariff impact

However, the report added that "even these significant easing measures are unlikely to fully offset the negative effects of the tariffs

'I'm not Sanjay from Mahabharat': RBI Governor quips on future rate cuts

RBI MPC reduced the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 per cent, marking the second cut this year

RBI cuts repo rate by 25 bps to 6%, lowers FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.5%

RBI lowers repo rate by 25 bps and trims GDP projection for FY26, citing controlled inflation and global trade and policy uncertainties

Sikkim CM presents Rs 16,196 cr Budget for 2025-26 with focus on growth

Sikkim Chief Minister Prem Singh Tamang on Wednesday presented in the assembly a budget of Rs 16,196 crore for the 2025-26 fiscal with a focus on empowering youth, uplifting farmers, investing in infrastructure and ensuring financial discipline. The budget comprises Rs 11,028 crore of revenue expenditure and Rs 5,168 crore of capital outlay. The devolution of taxes from the Centre was estimated at Rs 5,519 crore, a leading source of receipts, along with Rs 2,600 crore that the central government will provide to Sikkim as grants and aids in 2025-26, said Tamang, who also holds the finance portfolio. The state government will generate its own tax revenue worth Rs 2,076 crore and non-tax revenue to the tune of Rs 1,007 crore, he said, adding that Rs 2,651 crore will be raised through borrowing. The chief minister said that a provision of Rs 2,896 crore has been made in the next fiscal year's budget for the state government's contributions to the centrally sponsored schemes with a goal