Economy Growth Forecast

ADB lowers FY27 India growth forecast to 6.5% citing US tariff impact

The Asian Development Bank lowered India's FY26 growth projection to 6.5% from 6.7%, citing steep US tariffs that could hit exports, manufacturing and investment in key sectors

Revenue deficit, capital spends: Key takeaways from 15th finance commission

The 15th FC had recommended a sizeable Rs. 2.9 trillion as revenue deficit grants (RDG) to a select number of states for FY2022-FY2026

'Lack of data': RBI keeps GDP forecast unchanged despite Trump's 25% tariff

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra says global uncertainties were already factored in previous growth forecasts and that RBI will continue to monitor macro conditions before revising projections

RBI lowers inflation forecast to 3.1% for FY26; growth outlook unchanged

August MPC: RBI cuts FY26 inflation forecast to 3.1% on easing food prices, favourable monsoon; growth outlook steady at 6.5%, CRR cut to begin in September

Icra retains India's FY26 GDP forecast at 6.2% despite rising global risks

Rating agency Icra on Wednesday retained its India's GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2025-26 at 6.2 per cent, assuming well-distributed monsoons and crude oil prices averaging around USD 70/barrel. However, geopolitical tensions in West Asia, volatility in financial markets, and uncertain trade policies pose downside risks to this growth outlook, which have intensified, Icra said in its Macro Update June 2025. Reserve Bank has projected the GDP growth at 6.5 per cent. "Economic activity has displayed a mixed trend in the first two months of FY2026, with only nine of the 17 non-agri indicators showing an improvement over Q4 FY2025, even as the output of summer crops is estimated to grow at a healthy pace," the report said. The early onset of monsoons in May 2025 partly weighed upon the performance of the electricity and mining sectors. It also said the prospects for urban consumption remain bright owing to the income tax relief, rate cuts and softening food inflation. However, glob

India's domestic growth looks steady, but external risks are a key concern

Nonetheless, higher agricultural output and lower food inflation will allow the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to ease policy

UN cuts India's 2025 growth forecast to 6.3% amid global tensions

UN WESP report lowers India's growth outlook for 2025 to 6.3 per cent, citing rising trade tensions and policy uncertainty, but notes strength in consumption and investment

IMF cuts India's FY26 growth forecast to 6.2% amid trade tensions

The WEO stressed that swift escalation of trade tensions has generated extremely high levels of policy ambiguity, making it more difficult than usual to establish a central global growth outlook

Goldman Sachs cuts China GDP growth forecasts citing tariff impact

However, the report added that "even these significant easing measures are unlikely to fully offset the negative effects of the tariffs

'I'm not Sanjay from Mahabharat': RBI Governor quips on future rate cuts

RBI MPC reduced the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 per cent, marking the second cut this year

RBI cuts repo rate by 25 bps to 6%, lowers FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.5%

RBI lowers repo rate by 25 bps and trims GDP projection for FY26, citing controlled inflation and global trade and policy uncertainties

Sikkim CM presents Rs 16,196 cr Budget for 2025-26 with focus on growth

Sikkim Chief Minister Prem Singh Tamang on Wednesday presented in the assembly a budget of Rs 16,196 crore for the 2025-26 fiscal with a focus on empowering youth, uplifting farmers, investing in infrastructure and ensuring financial discipline. The budget comprises Rs 11,028 crore of revenue expenditure and Rs 5,168 crore of capital outlay. The devolution of taxes from the Centre was estimated at Rs 5,519 crore, a leading source of receipts, along with Rs 2,600 crore that the central government will provide to Sikkim as grants and aids in 2025-26, said Tamang, who also holds the finance portfolio. The state government will generate its own tax revenue worth Rs 2,076 crore and non-tax revenue to the tune of Rs 1,007 crore, he said, adding that Rs 2,651 crore will be raised through borrowing. The chief minister said that a provision of Rs 2,896 crore has been made in the next fiscal year's budget for the state government's contributions to the centrally sponsored schemes with a goal

India to be in our top three growth regions by 2028: Danfoss India prez

The Indian market is poised to be among the top three growth regions for Danfoss globally, and the company will continue investing Rs 1,000 to Rs 1,200 crore over the next three years to drive localisation, a top official of Danfoss India, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Denmark-based Danfoss Group, said on Tuesday. Currently, the Indian subsidiary has moved into the top six in Danfoss' global rankings, recording strong double-digit growth in 2024, Danfoss India President Ravichandran Purushothaman said in a company statement. On Tuesday, Danfoss announced its financial performance, reporting sales of Euro 9.87 billion, with an operational EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) margin of 11.3 per cent. "I am excited about our strong performance in Climate Solutions and Drives, particularly in high-growth markets such as data centers and marine electrification. We have maintained high investment in innovation, driving competitive solutions. I am prou

RBI article signals economic momentum rise in H2FY25 amid strong demand

High frequency indicators, like vehicles sales, air traffic, steel consumption and GST E-way bills, point towards a sequential pickup in momentum of economic activity during the second half of the fiscal 2024-25 and sustain moving forward, RBI Bulletin said on Wednesday. However, a strong dollar, driven by US economic resilience and trade policy pivots, could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging economies, push risk premiums higher, and intensify external vulnerabilities, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in RBI's February bulletin. Economic activity momentum is poised to be sustained, strong rural demand is expected to receive a further fillip from the robust performance of the agriculture sector. Urban demand is also poised for a recovery, tracking decline in inflation as well as a boost to disposable incomes from the sizeable income tax relief announced in the Union Budget 2025-26. "...high frequency indicators point towards a sequential pick-up in momentum

IMF praises Pakistan PM's actions to strengthen economy through reforms

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday expressed support for decisive actions by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's government for the betterment of Pakistan's economy. Pakistan and the IMF last year signed a USD 7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) loan programme to help the cash-strapped country tackle its balance of payment issue while implementing tough conditions. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who met Sharif during the prime minister's visit to the United Arab Emirates, in a post on X said: I am encouraged by their strong commitment to Pakistan's IMF-supported reforms and support their decisive actions to pave the way to higher growth and more jobs for Pakistan's youthful population. The comments come amid the IMF team's visit to Pakistan to scrutinise the judicial and regulatory system as part of the ongoing USD 7 billion programme to address governance and corruption vulnerabilities. According to a statement from the PM Office, the premier held a ...

Budget a watershed moment in India's clean energy transition: Experts

Industry experts hailed steps for boosting clean energy like nuclear mission, incentives for critical minerals and renewable equipment in the Budget presented on Saturday by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharman. Sitharaman announced a Rs 20,000-crore nuclear mission and duty exemptions for crucial minerals and capital goods for electric vehicles to step up energy transition. Rajat Verma, Founder & CEO, LOHUM said, The 2025 budget marks a watershed moment in India's journey toward clean energy sovereignty and circular economy leadership. The government's strategic vision for domestic manufacturing and critical minerals recycling demonstrates remarkable foresight in securing our sustainable future." The elimination of import duties on lithium-ion battery scrap, cobalt powder, and an array of critical mineral wastes unlocks unprecedented opportunities. Coupled with the duty exemption expansion to 63 additional capital goods for EV and mobile battery production, this creates a ...

Aiming to boost economic ties with US, engaging with Trump admin: Goyal

Bilateral trade between India and the United States, India's largest trading partner, exceeded $118 billion in 2023/24, with India registering a trade surplus of $32 billion

Rupee logs 9th straight week of losses, analysts expect more weakness

The rupee may touch the 86-per-dollar mark in the short term, said Jigar Trivedi, a senior analyst at Reliance Securities, who recommends buying the dollar-rupee pair on every dip

Asian Development Bank lowers India's growth forecast to 6.5% for FY25

The multilateral funding agency also revised downwards its forecast for the next financial year (FY26) to 7 per cent from 7.2 per cent estimated earlier

Asia tariffs could harm growth and disrupt supply chains, warns IMF

Tariffs could impede global trade, hamper growth in exporting nations, and potentially raise inflation in the United States, forcing the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy, despite