Premium market or a dangerous one? Kotak Private's TACT panel splits jury

At a time when global uncertainty clouds asset allocation decisions, Kotak Private Banking has launched a high-conviction thought leadership platform—Take and Counter Take (TACT)—bringing together heavyweight market voices to dissect the country’s investment outlook for the ultra-wealthy.

 

The invite-only platform is designed to encourage sharper thinking among India’s wealth creators by juxtaposing a sharp “Take” with a rigorously argued “Counter Take.” The maiden session in Mumbai addressed a question dominating boardrooms and family offices alike: Is India still a safe bet for large investors?

 

The discussion brought together three of India’s most influential market minds:

 

Prashant Jain, Founder & CIO, 3P Investment Managers

 

 

Sanjeev Prasad, MD & Co-Head, Kotak Institutional Equities

 

Moderated by Nilesh Shah, Group President & MD, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Co.

 

Introducing the platform, Oisharya Das, CEO, Kotak Private Banking, said:

“Take and Counter Take is about elevating financial dialogue in India. By surfacing diverse opinions, we empower clients with foresight and clarity—reinforcing Kotak Private’s commitment to trust and bespoke solutions for wealth creators.”

 

Kotak Private Banking services 60% of India’s top 100 families (Forbes India Rich List, 2024), making TACT a strategic extension of its role as a trusted advisor to the country’s largest wealth pools.

 

Key Insights From the Debate: India at an Inflection Point

 

The session revealed a candid split between bullish macro optimism and caution rooted in structural risks.

 

India’s Growth Story: Optimism vs Structural Risks

Take: Prashant Jain called India’s outlook “the most optimistic in 35 years,” citing three drivers — surging non-software services exports, manufacturing momentum with Apple now assembling 25% of iPhones in India, and reforms that could sustain 6–7% growth.

 

Counter Take: Sanjeev Prasad flagged concerns on job creation amid automation, income inequality and a less favorable global trade environment.

 

Valuations: Premium or Pitfall

Take: Sanjeev argued headline multiples “mean very little,” highlighting stretched consumer stock valuations of 40–70x and risks to IT from AI disruption.

 

Counter Take: Prashant asserted India deserves a premium for its high RoE of 16%, low growth volatility and structural resilience — though return expectations should align with nominal GDP (10–12%).

 

Global Linkages: Decoupled Economy, Coupled Markets

Both agreed India’s fundamentals are strong but markets remain sensitive to global cycles. Domestic liquidity cushions volatility yet prolonged low returns could dampen retail optimism. 

IPO Boom: Opportunity vs Overhang

 

Prashant welcomed capital access for entrepreneurs while Sanjeev warned of governance risks as many recent IPOs serve as PE exits rather than funding core assets.

 

The session underscored a clear message — India’s macro story is compelling, but investors must navigate structural challenges, valuation discipline and global volatility with realism. Both experts agreed that while the downside for large-cap equities may be limited, return expectations should remain modest and sector selection will be critical. Financials, healthcare and manufacturing emerged as preferred plays, while consumer and retail warrant caution.

 

Where Should Investors Look Now?

 

Both experts converged on one takeaway: returns will be moderate, but downside risks for large caps remain limited.

 

Favoured sectors:

 

Financials

Healthcare

Manufacturing

 

Caution areas:

 

Consumer discretionary

Retail

Overvalued defensives

 

TACT highlighted a clear shift: India remains investible and attractive, but precision, sector selection, and valuation discipline will matter more than ever.

 

TACT: Kotak Private’s Strategic Push Into Thought Leadership

 

With global wealth trends shifting and family offices becoming more sophisticated, Kotak Private intends for TACT to become a marquee platform.

 

Future editions will unpack themes shaping the next decade:

 

• Sustainability and green transitions
• AI, deep tech, and biotech
• Global capital allocation frameworks
• New investing paradigms for UHNI and family office portfolios

 

Disclosure: Entities controlled by the Kotak family have a significant holding in Business Standard Pvt Ltd